Population Dynamics and Projection Methods

Although the human population growth rate of the world has been declining since peaking in the early 1960s, the populations of individual countries are changing at different rates. Population dynamics at national level are partly determined by levels of fertility and mortality, but the impact of international migration is playing an increasingly important role. Moreover, internal migration plays a major part in population change at the sub-national level.

This fourth volume in the series "Understanding Population Trends and Processes" is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

Résumé

Good understanding of contemporary demographic structure and population dynamics underpins effective planning and decision making for the future. One of the key contributors to the development of a range of population projection methodologies over the past 40 years is Professor Phil Rees at the University of Leeds. This book contains an eclectic range of methodological and substantive contributions by a number of eminent researchers in the fields of population geography and demography that were presented at a conference to honour Professor Rees's retirement.

In this book different macro and micro approaches for estimating and projecting populations are reviewed, trends in the components of change in the UK (births, deaths and migration) are presented, international comparisons of internal migration are drawn, impacts of population ageing are considered and a new perspective on understanding urban evolution is offered. All these themes are interconnected in one way or another and collectively represent a compendium of the research interests of Professor Rees. The book is a celebration of a lifetime of commitment to undertaking meticulous analytical research, developing innovative modelling methods and enhancing knowledge in population geography and spatial demography.

Contenu

Preface John Stillwell and Martin Clarke.- 1: The Dynamics of Populations Large and Small: Processes, Models and Futures Philip Rees.- 2: Population Accounts Frans Willekens.- 3: MULTIPOLES: A Revised Multiregional Model for Improved Capture of International Migration Marek Kupiszewski and Dorota Kupiszewska.- 4: Modelling with NEWDSS: Producing State, Regional and Local Area Population Projections for New South Wales Tom Wilson.- 5: Relationships Between UK Sub-national Trends in Infant Mortality and Fertility Paul Norman.- 6: Monitoring Who Moves Where: Information Systems for Internal and International Migration John Stillwell, Peter Boden and Adam Dennett.- 7: Comparing Internal Migration Between Countries Using Courgeau's k Martin Bell and Salut Muhidin.- 8: Increasing Longevity and the Economic Value of Healthy Ageing and Working Longer Les Mayhew.- 9: Spatial Microsimulation Models: A Review and a Glimpse into the future Mark Birkin and Martin Clarke.- 10: Tracking the Evolution of the Populations of a System of Cities Alan Wilson and Joel Dearden.- Index