Oxford-trained historian and former British diplomat, Arthur Snell delivers the first comprehensive account of the geopolitics of climate change. Within our lifetimes, rising water levels and temperatures, plus increased scarcity and economic pressure, will inevitably drive both conflict and mass migration among the world''s major powers. Natural disasters and the battle for rare metals that are essential to our technology will shake the established world order to its core within this century. With over 25 years-experience in conflict zones and fragile states, Arthur Snell travels from the heat of the Sahel to the Arctic Circle to show how climate change is coinciding with a breakdown in geopolitical order, increasing conflict, military spending and violence. Through four sections - Earth, Air, Fire and Water - Elemental blends reportage with analysis and interviews from a range of international experts, policymakers and politicians, to reveal the turbulent future we face - and the choices we need to make to avert disaster.

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Arthur Snell

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'An extraordinary mastery of geopolitics, combining years on the ground in the most challenging places, a raw instinct for politics and a deep ethical concern for the world in the face of climate catastrophe. A masterpiece.' - RORY STEWART

'A powerful, passionate and utterly convincing book.' - LORD PETER RICKETTS

From the water-stressed mountains of the Arabian Peninsula to the wildfires raging through America's most populated regions, the climate crisis is already affecting the lives of millions. As natural disasters and increased scarcity shake the established world order to its core, Elemental reveals an alternative future is still possible.

Within this century, the new era of extreme weather will threaten India's ability to grow rice, prevent southern Europe's farms from providing the continent with fresh produce, and make building in Saudi Arabia near impossible. While such unprecedented challenges inevitably drive conflict, they will also encourage innovation, upending economies and global power structures to create opportunities for new players and pioneering ways of living.

In this groundbreaking study, Arthur Snell visits rapidly changing societies to show how we can live on a warming planet. He presents a vision in which Africa powers Europe with solar energy, where autocratic oil states are no more, and new shipping routes across the melting Arctic bring Asia, Europe and North America closer than ever before. In Russia, huge areas of highly fertile land will be exposed by the melting ice for whoever can seize it, while China's stranglehold on rare minerals looks set to make it the world's leading superpower.

Through four sections - Earth, Air, Fire and Water - Elemental blends reportage with analysis and interviews with key experts, policymakers and politicians, to reveal the turbulent future we face - and the choices we need to make to avert disaster.