The award-winning introduction now has more on the role of emotions, happiness and general well-being in decision making; research on the neuroscience of decision processes; and more on the adaptive value of non-rational heuristics.

Klappentext In the Second Edition of Rational Choice in an Uncertain World the authors compare the basic principles of rationality with actual behaviour in making decisions. They describe theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well. The Second Edition includes: - more coverage on the role of emotions, happiness, and general well-being in decisions - a summary of the new research on the neuroscience of decision processes - more discussion of the adaptive value of (non-rational heuristics) - expansion of the graphics for decision trees, probability trees, and Venn diagrams.The award-winning introduction now has more on the role of emotions, happiness and general well-being in decision making; research on the neuroscience of decision processes; and more on the adaptive value of non-rational heuristics. Inhaltsverzeichnis Chapter 1 - Thinking and Deciding 1.1 Decision Making Is a Skill 1.2 Thinking: automatic and Controlled 1.3 The Computational Model of the Mind 1.4 Through the Darkest Psychoanalytical Theory and Behaviorism to Cognition 1.5 Quality of Choice: Rationality 1.6 The Invention of Modern Decision Theory Chapter 2 - What Is Decision Making? 2.1 Definition of a Decision 2.2 Picturing Decisions 2.3 Decision Quality, Revisited 2.4 Incomplete Thinking: A Legal Example 2.5 Over-Inclusive Thinking: Sunk Costs 2.6 The Rationality of Considering Only the Future 2.7 The Rest of This Book Chapter 3 - A General Framework for Judgment 3.1 A Conceptual Framework for Judgment and Prediction 3.2 Research With the Lens Model Framework 3.3 Capturing Judgment in Statistical Models 3.4 How Do Statistical Models Beat Human Judgment? 3.5 Practical Implications of the Surprising Success of the Linear Model 3.6 Objections and Rebuttals 3.7 The Role of Judgment in Choices and Decisions Chapter 4 - The Fundamental Judgment Strategy: Anchoring and Adjustment 4.1 Salient Values 4.2 Anchoring and (Insufficient) Adjustment 4.3 Anchoring on Ourselves 4.4 Anchoring the Past in the Present Chapter 5 - Judging Heuristically 5.1 Going Beyond the Information Given 5.2 Estimating Frequencies and probabilities 5.3 Availability of Memories 5.4 Biased Samples in Memory 5.5 Biased Sampling From Memory 5.6 Availability to the Imagination 5.7 From Availability to Probablility and Causality 5.8 Judgment by Similarity: Same Old Things 5.9 Representative Thinking 5.10 The Ratio Rule Chapter 6 - Explanation-Based Judgments 6.1 Everyone Likes a Good Story 6.2 The Conjunction Probabliity Error (Again) 6.3 Judging From Explanations 6.4 Legal Scenarios: The Best Story Wins in the Courtroom 6.5 Scenarios About Ourselves 6.6 Scenarios About the Unthinkable 6.7 Hindsight: Reconstructing the Past 6.8 Sometimes It's Better to Forget Chapter 7 - Chance and Cause 7.1 Misconceptions About Chance 7.2 Illusions of Control 7.3 Seeing Causal Structure Where It Isn't 7.4 Regression Toward the Mean 7.5 Reflections on Our Inability to Accept Randomness Chapter 8 - Thinking Rationally About Uncertainty 8.1 What to Do About the Biases 8.2 Getting Started Thinking in Terms of Probabilities 8.3 Comprehending the Situation Being Judged 8.4 Testing for Rationality 8.5 How to Think About Inverse Probabilities 8.6 Avoiding Subadditivity and Conjunction Errors 8.7 The Other Side of the Coin: The Probability of a Disjunction of Events 8.8 Changing Our Minds: Bayes's Theorem 8.9 Statistical Decision Theory 8.10 Concluding Comment on Rationality Chapter 9 - Evaluating Consequences: Fun...

Klappentext

"The authors are highly respected as leading figures in the field of judgment and decision making. There are many existing books on topics related to judgment and decision making, but this book makes a unique contribution to th

Inhalt

Chapter 1 - Thinking and Deciding
1.1 Decision Making Is a Skill
1.2 Thinking: automatic and Controlled
1.3 The Computational Model of the Mind
1.4 Through the Darkest Psychoanalytical Theory and Behaviorism to Cognition
1.5 Quality of Choice: Rationality
1.6 The Invention of Modern Decision Theory
Chapter 2 - What Is Decision Making?
2.1 Definition of a Decision
2.2 Picturing Decisions
2.3 Decision Quality, Revisited
2.4 Incomplete Thinking: A Legal Example
2.5 Over-Inclusive Thinking: Sunk Costs
2.6 The Rationality of Considering Only the Future
2.7 The Rest of This Book
Chapter 3 - A General Framework for Judgment
3.1 A Conceptual Framework for Judgment and Prediction
3.2 Research With the Lens Model Framework
3.3 Capturing Judgment in Statistical Models
3.4 How Do Statistical Models Beat Human Judgment?
3.5 Practical Implications of the Surprising Success of the Linear Model
3.6 Objections and Rebuttals
3.7 The Role of Judgment in Choices and Decisions
Chapter 4 - The Fundamental Judgment Strategy: Anchoring and Adjustment
4.1 Salient Values
4.2 Anchoring and (Insufficient) Adjustment
4.3 Anchoring on Ourselves
4.4 Anchoring the Past in the Present
Chapter 5 - Judging Heuristically
5.1 Going Beyond the Information Given
5.2 Estimating Frequencies and probabilities
5.3 Availability of Memories
5.4 Biased Samples in Memory
5.5 Biased Sampling From Memory
5.6 Availability to the Imagination
5.7 From Availability to Probablility and Causality
5.8 Judgment by Similarity: Same Old Things
5.9 Representative Thinking
5.10 The Ratio Rule
Chapter 6 - Explanation-Based Judgments
6.1 Everyone Likes a Good Story
6.2 The Conjunction Probabliity Error (Again)
6.3 Judging From Explanations
6.4 Legal Scenarios: The Best Story Wins in the Courtroom
6.5 Scenarios About Ourselves
6.6 Scenarios About the Unthinkable
6.7 Hindsight: Reconstructing the Past
6.8 Sometimes It s Better to Forget
Chapter 7 - Chance and Cause
7.1 Misconceptions About Chance
7.2 Illusions of Control
7.3 Seeing Causal Structure Where It Isn t
7.4 Regression Toward the Mean
7.5 Reflections on Our Inability to Accept Randomness
Chapter 8 - Thinking Rationally About Uncertainty
8.1 What to Do About the Biases
8.2 Getting Started Thinking in Terms of Probabilities
8.3 Comprehending the Situation Being Judged
8.4 Testing for Rationality
8.5 How to Think About Inverse Probabilities
8.6 Avoiding Subadditivity and Conjunction Errors
8.7 The Other Side of the Coin: The Probability of a Disjunction of Events
8.8 Changing Our Minds: Bayes s Theorem
8.9 Statistical Decision Theory
8.10 Concluding Comment on Rationality
Chapter 9 - Evaluating Consequences: Fundamental Preferences
9.1 What Good is Happiness?
9.2 The Role of Emotions in Evaluations
9.3 The Value of Money
9.4 Decision Utility -- Predicting What We will Value
9.5 Constructing Values
Chapter 10 - From Preferences to Choices
10.1 Deliberate Choices Among Complex Alternatives
10.2 Ordering Alternatives
10.3 Grouping Alternatives
10.4 Choosing Alternatives
10.5 How to Make Good Choices
Chapter 11 - A Rational Decision Theory
11.1 Formally Defining Rationality
11.2 Making Theories Understandable -- The Axiomatic Method
11.3 Defining Rationality: Expected Utility Theory
11.4 Traditional Objections to the Axioms
11.5 The Shoulds and Dos of the System
11.6 Some Bum Raps for Decision Analysis
Chapter 12 - A Descriptive Decision Theory
12.1 Non-expected Utility Theories
12.2 Gain-Loss Framing Effects
12.3 Loss Aversion
12.4 Look to the Future
Chapter 13 - What s Next? New Directions in Research on Judgmen…