International Macroeconomic Modelling for Policy Decisions

This book is based on an international conference organised by the Applied Econo metric Association (AEA) on International Macroeconomic Modelling which was held in Brussels at the Commission of the European Communities in December 1983. On behalf of the Applied Econometric Association, we would like to extend our thanks to all participants and contributors. This conference would not have been possible without the cooperation and support of the Commission of the European Economic Communities and of its Directorate General for Economics and Financial Affairs (DGII) staff, in particular M. Emerson, A. Dramais, and also H. Serbat of the Paris Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Our thanks go also to J.P. Ancot for his constructive comments concerning the structure of this book. We are grateful to M. Russo, R. Maldague and Y. Ullmo for opening the con ference with their stimulating review and comments on the use of international macroeconomic models; and to R. Bird, A.M. Costa, A. Crockett, H. Guitton, J.C. Milleron, J. Paelinck, J. Waelbroeck for chairing the scientific sessions. P. Artus F. Gagey O. Guvenen vi INTRODUCTION The main focus of this book is to present recent developments in the construction and use of international macroeconometric models. Four main aspects are selected: (i) analysis of trade linkages and exchange rate determination; (ii) modelling and simulating the international economy; (iii) international policy coordination; (iv) the use of international macroeconomic models.

Inhalt
I: Analysis of Trade Linkages and Exchange Rate Determination.- 1. Modelling Bilateral Sectoral Trade Flows.- 2. Product Availability, Price Discrimination and Interdependent Import Flows.- 3. Exchange Rate Expectations and Current and Balances in the OECD INTERLINK System.- 4. The Sterling-Dollar Exchange Market 19731982: Surprises and Expectations.- II: Modelling and Simulating the International Economy.- 5. An Aggregate Model of the World Economy.- 6. A Globus OECD/COMECON Simulation Model.- 7. Competitiveness and Employment in the Large Industrialized Countries.- 8. The Current Account of the United States, Japan and Germany: A Cyclical Analysis.- III: International Policy Coordination.- 9. The Coordination Approach to Policymaking in Interdependent Economies.- 10. Simulating Economic Policy with the COMET Model.- IV: The Use of International Macroeconomic Models.- 11. Making International Economic Forecasts.- 12. International Macroeconomic Modelling for Policy Decisions: Some Proposals.