The power of the ever-increasing tools and algorithms for prediction and their paradoxical effects on risk. ; As prediction grows more robust, it also alters the nature of the accompanying risk, setting up unintended and unexpected consequences. <The Age of Prediction< details how predictive certainties can bring about complacency or even an increase in risks--genomic analysis might lead to unhealthier lifestyles or a GPS might encourage less attentive driving. With greater predictability also comes a degree of mystery, and the authors ask how narrower risks might affect markets, insurance, or risk tolerance generally. Can we ever reduce risk to zero? Should we even try? This book lays an intriguing groundwork for answering these fundamental questions and maps out the latest tools and technologies that power these projections into the future, sometimes using novel, cross-disciplinary tools to map out cancer growth, people’s medical risks, and stock dynamics.

Autorentext

Igor Tulchinsky is founder, chairman, and CEO of WorldQuant, a quantitative investment firm based in Old Greenwich, Connecticut. He is the author of Finding Alphas: A Quantitative Approach to Building Trading Strategies and The UnRules: Man, Machines and the Quest to Master Markets.

Christopher E. Mason is Professor of Genomics, Physiology, and Biophysics at Weill Cornell Medicine and the Director of the WorldQuant Initiative for Quantitative Prediction. He also holds affiliate appointments at the New York Genome Center, Yale Law School, and the Consortium for Space Genetics at Harvard Medical School. Dr. Mason is the author of The Next 500 Years: Engineering Life to Reach New Worlds.

Klappentext

"The interplay between prediction and risk and role of advanced predictive technologies (biotechnology, AI, and big data) in provoking social change"--

Inhalt
Introduction vii
1 Prediction and Risk 1
2 The Complexity of Prediction 9
3 The Quantasaurus 17
4 The Trouble with Risk 39
5 New Tools of Prediction 57
6 Mortality and Its Possibilities 75
7 Crime and Privacy 97
8 The Smart Killing Machine 115
9 Predicting Performance 133
10 The Plague of Polling 151
11 Free Will, AI Jobs, and the Ultimate Paradox 167
Afterword: The Future of the Universe 183
Acknowledgments 189
Bibliography 191
Index 207