Roaring 2000s

Autorentext

Harry S. Dent, Jr. is the president of the H.S. Dent Foundation, whose mission is "Helping People Understand Change." He is the founder of HS Dent, which publishes the HS Dent Forecast and oversees the HS Dent Financial Advisors Network. He is the author of the New York Times bestseller, The Great Depression Ahead, as well as of The Great Boom Ahead, in which he stood virtually alone in accurately forecasting the unanticipated "boom" of the 1990s. A Harvard MBA, Fortune 100 consultant, new venture investor, and noted speaker, Mr. Dent is a highly respected figure in his field.

Rodney Johnson is the president of HS Dent, an independent economic research and investment management firm. He oversees the daily operations of the companies and is a regular contributor to the HS Forecast and the HS Dent Perspective. A graduate of Georgetown University and Southern Methodist University, Mr. Johnson is a frequent guest on radio and television programs to discuss economic changes in the United States and around the world.

Klappentext

THE GREAT BOOM IS COMINGHow and where we work and live is about to change drastically. In The Roaring 2000s, Harry S. Dent, Jr., one of the world's most prescient forecasters, turns his visionary eye to the full spectrum of possibilities that will follow in the wake of a burgeoning turn-of-the-century economy. Dent identifies opportunities, explores trends, and makes concrete predictions. Among them are: A Dow that will reach at least 21,500 and possibly 35,000 by the year 2008The rise of "gazelles", small- to medium-sized, high-growth companies that are now creating most of the jobs in this countryThe Eight Critical Technology Trends Changing How We Live and WorkThe New American Dream -- why changing technologies could mean a return to small-town living, and the nine types of boomtowns that will offer the highest quality of lifeThe New Network Corporation, which features leadership at the center rather than management from the top, and human browser teams that represent customers by connecting them directly to servers or specialized products and experts. These organizations are fast, responsive, and entrepreneurialThe Seven Principles of Successful InvestingFor anyone who wants to take advantage of these invaluable, emerging opportunities, The Roaring 2000s is a necessary guidebook to a not-so-distant future.

Zusammenfassung
THE GREAT BOOM IS COMING
How and where we work and live is about to change drastically. In The Roaring 2000s, Harry S. Dent, Jr., one of the world's most prescient forecasters, turns his visionary eye to the full spectrum of possibilities that will follow in the wake of a burgeoning turn-of-the-century economy. Dent identifies opportunities, explores trends, and makes concrete predictions. Among them are:
A Dow that will reach at least 21,500 and possibly 35,000 by the year 2008
The rise of "gazelles," small- to medium-sized, high-growth companies that are now creating most of the jobs in the country
The Eight Critical Technology Trends Changing How We Live and Work
The New American Dream -- why changing technologies could mean a return to small-town living, and the nine types of boomtowns that will offer the highest quality of life
The New Network Corporation, which features leadership at the center rather than management from the top, and human browser teams that represent customers by connecting them directly to servers or specialized products and experts. These organizations are fast, responsive and entrepreneurial
The Seven Principles of Successful Investing
For anyone who wants to take advantage of these invaluable, emerging opportunities. The Roaring 2000s is a necessary guidebook to a not-so-distant future.

Leseprobe
Introduction: The Secret to Building Wealth...and Lifestyle

It is common wisdom today that the key to building wealth is taking risks. People who take higher risks get the higher returns and wealth. There are risk/return graphs in investment and business that prove this. Most of us by now have heard that stocks have higher risk and volatility but higher returns over time than investments like bonds. New entrepreneurial ventures have higher risk and failure rates than established businesses and tend to create greater fortunes. And this is definitely true. But here is the paradox I have learned through many years of hands-on business experience with successful people:

The best entrepreneurs, executives, and investors I have worked with who actually achieve the highest returns and build the most wealth don't see it that way! Despite often being involved in unproven ventures and changing management or investments, they don't perceive that they are taking big risks at all. They are simply doing the obvious. They are very definite that what they are doing or investing in must and will succeed. They have a clear understanding of change and fundamental trends that seem all but inevitable to them. They appear risky and unclear only to people who don't understand such changes and naturally cling to familiar patterns that are more comfortable.

Was Lee Iacocca unclear about the changes that were necessary to save a dying Chrysler Corporation in the mid-1980s? It was obvious to anyone who didn't have a stake in the old ways of doing business. How long did it take Gerstner to figure out as an outside manager what it would take to turn around IBM in the mid-1990s? Haven't much of the public and outside analysts been clear that Apple needed radical changes before its near demise in the mid-1990s? Was Steve Jobs unclear about the potential of personal computers in the late 1970s? Or Bill Gates about the need for a software operating system standard in the mid-1980s? Or Gordon Moore about the doubling of semiconductor power every 18 months since the mid-1960s? Was Michael Milken unclear about the need to finance such new emerging companies through nontraditional means in the 1980s?

The many failures among the high-risk ventures come from naive people who are hoping to make an easy killing, such as winning the lottery or getting instant salvation or overnight success in business. It is not that new directions or investments are proven or that it will be easy or that there won't be challenges. That's the hard part. These successful people have the clarity and conviction to push through such challenges. They foresee the need for a new product or service or the viability of a new technology or investment. Why? They have a unique history of experience that has already validated it for them. They have done their homework and know it is possible. They understand the fundamental trends driving the changes they are investing in. And their experience and homework has also taught them that it won't necessarily happen overnight or be easy. Therefore they usually don't expect it to be. But if it is much harder than they thought, it's their belief in the feasibility and inevitability of what they are doing that keeps them moving ahead until their vision becomes a reality. It's the strength and attraction of their vision that allows these people to overcome the obstacles that appear as risk, uncertainty, and volatility to others.

Clarity about long-term fundamental trends is the key to dealing with the random and uncertain short-term events that inevitably come in the path of any goal. A clear vision of future change and the discipline to stay the course are the keys to building wealth and success, whether in business or investments. Setbacks are only opportunities to learn, adapt, or invest more. It isn't a matter of chance to these successful people. In this incredible era of change and progress, the lion's share of wealth is going to the top half of 1 percent of the population -- those with this understanding of change and a systematic approach to taking so-called risks.…