In this volume we present some of the papers delivered at FUR-IV - the Fourth International Conference on Founda­ tions and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory in Budapest, June 1988. The FUR Conferences have provided an appreciated forum every two years since 1982 within which scientists can report recent issues and prospective applications of decision theory, and exchange ideas about controversial questions of this field. Focal points of the presented papers are: expected utility versus alterna­ tive utility models, concepts of risk and uncertainty, developments of game theory, and investigations of real decision making behaviour under uncertainty and/or in risky situations. We hope that this sample of papers will appeal to a wide spectrum of readers who are interested in and fami­ liar with this interesting and exciting issues of decision theory. A wide range of theoretical and practical questions is considered in papers included in this volume, and many of them closely related to economics. In fact, there were two Nobel-Laureates in economics among the participants: I. Herbert A. Simon (1978) and Maurice Allais (1988), who won the prize just after the conference. His paper deals with problems of cardinal utility. After a concise overview of the history and theory of cardinal utility he gives an estimate of the invariant cardinal utility function for its whole domain of variation (i. e.

Inhalt

Cardinal Utility.- Game Solutions and the Normal Form.- Overconfidence in Overconfidence.- Problem Formulation and Alternative Generation in the Decision Making Process.- On Non-Expected-Utility Preferences.- Aspects of Regret Theory and Disappointment Theory as Alternatives to the Expected Utility Hypothesis.- Expected Utility Theory - The "Confirmation" that Backfires.- The Expected Utility Model as an Aggregation Procedure.- Lowered Welfare Under the Expected Utility Proceduree.- Geometric Models of Decision Making Under Uncertainty.- Response-Modes and Inconsistencies in Preference Assessments.- Consistent Choice and Sexes.- Experimental Study of the (m, EU) Model.- Expected Utility Violations.- Fuzzy Sets in Risk Analysis 183.- Mean-Risk Decision Analysis Under Partial Information.- Sequential Equilibria in Beliefs in Semi-Games.- Some Links Between Decomposable Measure's and Capacities Modeling Uncertainty Attitudes.- Linear Utility Theory and Belief Functions: A Discussion.- Transportation Models, Subjective Probability, and Fuzzy Membership: Empirical Comparisons.- Increasing Risk: Another Definition.- "Irreversible Risk" as Intertemporal Opportunities.- Analyses of Expected Utilities in a Causal Decision Theory.- Group Decisions and Decisions for a Group.- The Foundations of the Theory of Choice between Experiments.- Morally Rational Decisions.- Flexibility as Strategic Response to Increasing Uncertainty.- Incorporating the Security Factor and the Potential Factor in Decision Making Under Risk.- "Risk Society: Towards a New Type of Modernization".- Behavioral Consistency in Sequential Decisions.- A Comparison of Two Definitions of Risk Aversion.- A New Concept for Modelling Risk Taking.- Problems of the Application of Risk Management Models in Project Evaluation.- Risk Aversion as a Function of Variance and Skewness.