The first phase of transition to a market economy in Central and Eastern Europe was characterized by a sharp output decline. The fall in real GDP exceeded 20% while real industrial production decreased even by 40%. Output Decline in Eastern Europe aims at providing comprehensive, multi-factor explanations for this unique, painful experience. Various hypotheses are analyzed: credit and fiscal policies may have been too tight; the collapse of the CMEA and the USSR came as a shock; domestic producers were neither experienced, nor flexible enough to adjust the output to new patterns of demand. Output Decline in Eastern Europe contains a unique combination of authors from East and West who extensively analyze new data based on country studies. Understanding the causes of recent output decline, the subject matter of this volume may help to assess the prospects for Eastern Europe. The book is addressed to researchers and students as well as interested officials who deal with the transition of formerly centrally planned economies in Central and Eastern Europe.

Inhalt

List of Figures. List of Tables. Introduction and Overview; R. Holzmann, J. Gács, G. Winckler. I: Measurement of Output Decline. 1. The Impact of National Accounting Systems on Growth Rates; J. Ávay. 2. The Irregular Economy in Transition: Features, Measurement, and Scope; B. Dallago. Comments; R. Rose. 3. Interpreting the Decline of Output' and the Prospects for Recovery'; J.S. Earle. II: Causes of Output Decline. 4. Common Causes or Structural Adjustment? Output Decline in Eastern Europe and Poland; E. Borensztein, J.D. Ostry. Comments; K. Neusser. 5. Supply and Demand Factors in Output Decline in Central and Eastern Europe; A. Berg. Comments; M. Dabrowski. 6. The Impact of the Soviet Trade Shock on Central and East European Economies; D.K. Rosati. 7. The Effects of the Demise of the CMEA and the USSR on Output in Hungary; J. Gács. Comments; G. Oblath, D. Gros. 8. Inter-Enterprise Arrears in Economies in Transition; G.A. Calvo, F. Coricelli. Comments; J. Rostowski. 9. The Financial Situation and Bad Debts of Enterprises in Poland; S. Gomulka. Comments; D. Daianu. 10. Output Decline and Government Expenditures in European Transition Economies; Ke-young Chu, G. Schwartz. Comments; E. Nowotny. 11. Output and Employment in Private and Non-Private Businesses in Hungary: 1990--1992; Á. Valentinyi. 12. Output Decline and the Dynamics of Privatization in the Czech Republic; A. Capek. Comments; M. Rutkowski. III: Policy Issues of Output Decline. 13.Output Decline and Recovery in Central and Eastern Europe: the Role of Incentives; M. Raiser, P. Nunnenkamp. 14. Opening Western Markets: the European Community's Response; A. Bucher. Comments; S. Richter. 15. Disinflation without Output Decline: Tales of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization; A.F. Ades, M.A. Kiguel, N. Liviatan. Summary: Output Decline in Eastern Europe -- Summing up the Debate; J. Williamson.