Models and Experiments in Risk and Rationality presents original contributions to the areas of individual choice, experimental economics, operations and analysis, multiple criteria decision making, market uncertainty, game theory and social choice. The papers, which were presented at the FUR VI conference, are arranged to appear in order of increasing complexity of the decision environment or social context in which they situate themselves. The first section Psychological Aspects of Risk-Bearing', considers choice at the purely individual level and for the most part, free of any specific economic or social context. The second section examines individual choice within the classical expected utility approach while the third section works from a perspective that includes non-expected utility preferences over lotteries. Section four, Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Under Uncertainty', considers the more specialized but crucial context of uncertain choice involving tradeoffs between competing criteria -- a field which is becoming of increasing importance in applied decision analysis. The final two sections examine uncertain choice in social or group contexts.

Inhalt

0: Introduction to the Volume. 1: Psychological Aspects of Risk Bearing. The Psychogenetic Approach to Risk; J.-P. Assailly. Contextual Effects and the Influence of the Frame on Decision Making; B. Cadet. CE-PE Bias and Probability Level: an Anchoring Model of their Interaction; P. Schoemaker, J. Hershey. 2: New Developments in the Theory of Risk Aversion. Non-Additive Probabilities and the Measure of Uncertainty and Risk Aversion: a Proposal; A. Montesano. A Precautionary Tale of Risk Aversion and Prudence; L. Eeckhoudt, H. Schlesinger. Embodied Risk: Framing', Consumption Style and the Deterrence of Crimes of Passion; J. Rothenberg. 3: Non-Expected Utility Models and Tests. Estimation of Expected Utility and Non-Expected Utility Preference Functionals Using Complete Ranking Data; E. Carbone, J. Hey. The Closing In' Method: an Experimental Tool to Investigate Individual Choice Patterns under Risk; M. Abdellaoui, B. Munier. Gains and Losses in Nonadditive Expected Utility; R. Sarin, P. Wakker. An Outline of my Main Contributions to Risk and Utility Theory: Theory, Experience, and Applications; M. Allais. 4: Multiple Criteria Decision-Making under Uncertainty. Multiattribute Analysis based on Stochastic Dominance; K. Zaras, J.-M. Martel. Aggregation and Uncertainties in Deliberated Evaluation; Quinsan Cao, J.-P. Protzen. Multicriteria Decision Model and Decision Making Process in an Organization: an Application in Industrial Management; C. Pellegrin. 5: Production, Firms and Markets. Expected Profits and Information under Uncertainty; E. Romstad, P.K. Rørstad. Market PreferencesRevealed by Prices: Non-Linear Pricing in Slack Markets; A. Chateauneuf, R. Kast, A. Lapied. Risk, Time and Financial Decision; F. Quittard-Pinon, J. Sikorav. 6: Games and Social Choice. Ambiguity Aversion and Non-Additive Beliefs in Non-Cooperative Games: Experimental Evidence; C. Camerer, R. Karjalainen. On Regular Composed Tournaments; G. Laffond, J. Laine, J.-F. Laslier. Market Games with Asymmetric Information: the Core with Finitely Many States of the World; B. Allen. Information Transmission in Signalling Games: Confrontation of Different Forward Induction Criteria; G. Umbhauer.