Hacia el Futuro

The book focuses on the impact of future energy policies on fossil fuel use, environmental quality, and economic growth in Mexico over the next 20 years. The first part examines the growth of the Mexican energy sector and its link to international trade, government revenues, economic welfare, income distribution and environmental pollution. The scientific linkages between greenhouse gas emissions and climate change are presented with the economic theory behind various emission abatement strategies. The authors examine the harmful effects of climate change on economic well being in Mexico and explain the role of Mexico and Latin America in current climate change negotiations.

The second part develops a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model of the Mexican economy, paying attention to the energy sector and its linkages with other aspects of the aggregate economy. Conclusions for Mexico are placed in the wider context of the Americas. The effects of climate change policy are contrasted with that in Venezuela, Argentina and Brazil. Finally, by employing an integrated US-Mexican model the authors look at possible advantages of emissions trading between these two countries.

This book could serve as a supplemental text in a number of different classes in environmental and resource economics, development, modelling, and negotiation of international treaties. Executives from the energy sector would also benefit in the United States, Mexico, and throughout Latin America.

Zusammenfassung
The past 25 years have witnessed an increasing worldwide concern over the issue of climate change and the specter of immense environmental and economic damage which would accompany unmitigated global warming trends. National governments in the industrialized world along with numerous multinational organizations have made a strong case for curbing the use of fossil fuels as an energy source, and agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol have come about largely due to their efforts. Many groups of researchers in both the natural and social sciences have made great strides in understanding this complicated issue. To date, however, the vast majority of climate change literature has addressed the topic from a European, North American, or global perspective, and the implications for developing countries have largely received only cursory treatment. This book represents a major step forward in addressing the issue of climate from the perspective of a country in the developing world. It highlights the climate change concerns for a particular developing country Mexico, and analyses the economic impacts of different policies designed to mitigate the use of fossil fuels in the context of economic development and growth. The effects of energy pricing policies, technological change, carbon sequestration, and tradable permits are all economically modeled and discussed at length by the authors. Of particular interest are the issues that these authors raise for policy makers, such as the tradeoffs between environmental concerns, economic growth, and income distribution.

Inhalt

1.- Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.- Forecasting the impact of climate change.- Energy use in mexico.- Economic theory, emission control, and kyoto.- 2.- The dynamic general equilibrium model.- Simulation results under perfect competition.- Simulation results under imperfect competition.- Emissions trading: intersectoral and international.- Conclusions.