Two general questions stood at the beginning of this PhD-thesis, namely: . What are the mechanisms which lead to the emergence and establishment of new technologies? . How can this process of technological change be influenced politically? In this sense, conceptual and theoretical interests were the early driving forces of the research work. This is also reflected in the considerable attention paid to the nature of technological change and political control. The result is an holistic per­ spective which builds on inputs from different disciplines and aims at dynamic interpretation. This, however, created a severe methodological problem: How could such a comprehensive perspective be used constructively? To develop this link between theory and forward-looking, policy-oriented analysis, and to devise a methodology which showed explicitly how this approach could be used in a con­ structive way were in fact the major challenges of this research project. The appli­ cation to the example of combined heat and power generation, and the comparison of the developments in the UK and in Germany serve the purpose to demonstrate how this approach and methodology can be implemented in practice. These as­ pects were also of particular interest to the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), one ofthe institutes of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, where most of the research work reported in this PhD-thesis was carried out.

Inhalt

1: Introduction.- 1.1 The applied problem.- 1.2 The methodological problem.- 1.3 The theoretical problem.- 1.4 The rationale of the study.- 1.5 Structure of the study.- I: The PET-System - A Theoretical and Methodological Approach to Innovation Diffusion and Political Control.- 2: Theoretical Approaches to Technological Change and Political Control Across Disciplines.- 2.1 Some basic concepts and definitions.- 2.1.1 Technology and related definitions.- 2.1.2 Defmitions related to political control and regulation.- 2.1.3 Multiple perspectives on technological change: A hierarchy of disciplines.- 2.1.4 Multiple models of processes of change - a formal criterion.- 2.1.5 Summary and synthesis.- 2.2 Descriptive models and the aggregate measurement of technological change, diffusion and innovation.- 2.2.1 Measurement of innovation and diffusion.- 2.2.2 Models for the representation of innovation and diffusion processes.- 2.2.3 Summary.- 2.3 Economic approaches to technological change.- 2.3.1 Simple models - linear thinking.- 2.3.2 Explanatory models of the feedback and systemic type - neo-classical vs. evolutionary theorising.- 2.3.3 Main elements of evolutionary theories of techno-economic change.- 2.3.4 Summary and assessment.- 2.4 Sociological analysis of technological change.- 2.4.1 Early sociological approaches - linear models and single factors.- 2.4.2 The 'new' sociology of technological change - interdependencies, networks and systems.- 2.4.3 Summary and assessment.- 2.5 Theories of political control and regulation.- 2.5.1 Linear relationships between the political and the techno-economic realm.- 2.5.2 Feedback and system thinking from a political perspective.- 2.5.3 Summary and assessment.- 2.6 Conclusions.- 2.6.1 Requirements of an integrated perspective.- 2.6.2 Existing attempts to integrate perspectives.- 2.6.3 Elements of an integrated approach.- 3: The PET- System: An Integrated Approach to Innovation Diffusion and Political Control.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Delimitation of the system and exogenous forces.- 3.3 The central object of PET: technology.- 3.4 Structures and structural changes.- 3.4.1 Changes of technological structures.- 3.4.2 Changes of economic structures.- 3.4.3 Changes of information structures.- 3.4.4 Changes of political structures.- 3.5 Actors and motivations.- 3.5.1 The underlying actor model.- 3.5.2 Actors' decisions and links to their environment.- 3.5.3 Types of actors considered.- 3.6 Decisions and interactions.- 3.6.1 Decisions and decision arenas: innovation, adoption, policies.- 3.6.2 A typology of interactions.- 3.6.3 Institutions, institutional changes and interactions.- 3.7 System dynamics.- 3.8 Summary.- 3.8.1 Basic hypotheses.- 3.8.2 The PET-system - a useful starting point.- 4: A General Methodology for Studying Innovation Diffusion and Political Control.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 The basic steps of the general methodology.- 4.2.1 Step 1: Technology analysis.- 4.2.2 Step 2: Technological changes.- 4.2.3 Step 3: Delimitation of the system.- 4.2.4 Step 4: Structural analysis and structural evolution.- 4.2.5 Step 5: Identification of actors.- 4.2.6 Step 6: Event analysis.- 4.2.7 Step 7: Analysis of decisions and interactions.- 4.2.8 Step 8: Analysis of system dynamics.- 4.2.9 Step 9: Prospective analysis and scenario building.- 4.3 Conclusions.- II: Introduction of the Problem Area and Specification of the Methodology.- 5: Issues of Energy Supply and Cogeneration.- 5.1 Historical development of heat and power supply.- 5.1.1 Economies of scale.- 5.1.2 The political interests in energy supply.- 5.1.3 Emergence of centralised technical and organisational structures.- 5.1.4 The typical players in electricity supply.- 5.2 Recent challenges to the traditional organisation of the energy supply industries.- 5.2.1 The end of the political and strategic role.- 5.2.2 The natural monopoly debate and the claim for deregulation.- 5.2.3 The environmental discussion and energy efficiency.- 5.2.4 Options and policies for reorganising the ESI.- 5.3 CHP technology and its main dimensions (Step 1).- 5.3.1 Dimension 1: Technological issues and applications.- 5.3.2 Dimension 2: Environmental impact.- 5.3.3 Dimension 3: Micro-economics for CHP-users and suppliers.- 5.3.4 Dimension 4: Macro-and socio-economic issues.- 5.3.5 Dimension 5: Organisational and power issues.- 5.3.6 Technological alternatives for heat and electricity supply.- 5.4 Summary.- 5.4.1 CHP technology - a complex research field.- 5.4.2 Superiority, inferiority and the role of social processes.- 6: Determinants of CHP-Diffusion.- 6.1 An overview of the situation of CHP.- 6.2 General exogenous factors.- 6.3 Structural level.- 6.3.1 Technological factors.- 6.3.2 Economic factors.- 6.3.3 Institutional and organisational factors.- 6.3.4 Political factors.- 6.4 Behavioural level.- 6.4.1 Informational barriers and competencies.- 6.4.2 Attitudes of actors, actions and interactions.- 6.4.3 Case-studies on investment in energy efficiency and CHP.- 6.5 Policy recommendations.- 6.5.1 Recommendations at structural level.- 6.5.2 Recommendations at behavioural level.- 6.6 Missing pieces.- 6.7 Summary.- 7: Methodological Transfer - From the General Approach to the Empirical Investigation.- 7.1 Specification of the basic hypotheses.- 7.1.1 Co-evolution of structures and technology (H1).- 7.1.2 Technical complementarity (H2).- 7.1.3 Behavioural hypothesis (H3).- 7.1.4 Dynamic hypothesis (H4).- 7.1.5 Control hypothesis (H5).- 7.2 Focus of interest and comparative methodology.- 7.2.1 On the usefulness of a comparative methodology.- 7.2.2 Target areas.- 7.2.3 First specification: Selection of countries.- 7.2.4 Second specification: Selection of actors and cases.- 7.2.5 Third specification: Interview-based methodology.- 7.3 From theory to comparative data collection.- 7.3.1 Technological changes and innovations for CHP (Step 2).- 7.3.2 Delimitation of the system and exogenous changes (Step 3).- 7.3.3 Structures and structural changes (Step 4).- 7.3.4 Identification of actors (Step 5).- 7.3.5 Event analysis (Step 6).- 7.3.6 Analysis of decisions and interactions (Step 7).- 7.3.7 System dynamics (Step 8).- 7.3.8 Prospective analysis (Step 9).- 7.4 Issues and problems of research practice.- 7.4.1 Limitations of data sources.- 7.4.2 Constraints on the general validity of the results.- 7.5 Summary.- III: The Empirical Account: Cogeneration in the UK and Germany from the Early 80s to the Middle of the 90s.- 8: Liberalisation of Energy Supply …