Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics

The 5th Workshop on Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics was held at the Carnegie Mellon University campus on September 24-25, 1999. As in the past, the workshop featured both invited and contributed case studies. The former were presented and discussed in detail while the latter were presented in poster format. This volume contains the three invited case studies with the accompanying discussion as well as ten contributed pa­ pers selected by a refereeing process. The majority of case studies in the volume come from biomedical research. However, the reader will also find studies in education and public policy, environmental pollution, agricul­ ture, and robotics. INVITED PAPERS The three invited cases studies at the workshop discuss problems in ed­ ucational policy, clinical trials design, and environmental epidemiology, respectively. 1. In School Choice in NY City: A Bayesian Analysis ofan Imperfect Randomized Experiment J. Barnard, C. Frangakis, J. Hill, and D. Rubin report on the analysis of the data from a randomized study conducted to evaluate the New YorkSchool Choice Scholarship Pro­ gram. The focus ofthe paper is on Bayesian methods for addressing the analytic challenges posed by extensive non-compliance among study participants and substantial levels of missing data. 2. In Adaptive Bayesian Designs for Dose-Ranging Drug Trials D. Berry, P. Mueller, A. Grieve, M. Smith, T. Parke, R. Blazek, N.

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Invited Papers: School Choice in NY City: A Bayesian Analysis of an Imperfect Randomized Experiment by J. Barnard, C. Frangakis, J. Hill and D.B. Rubin Adaptive Bayesian Designs for Dose-Ranging Drug Trials by D.A. Berry, P.Müller, A.P. Grieve, M. Smith, T. Parke, R. Balazek, N. Mitchard and M. Krams Modeling the Impact of Traffic-Related Air Pollution on Childhood Respitory Illness by N.G. Best, K. Ickstadt, R. Wolpert, S. Cockings, P. Elliot, J. Bennett, A. Bottle and S. Reed Contributed Papers: A Hierarchical Model for Estimating Distribution Profiles of Soil Texture by P.J. Abbitt and F.J. Breidt Assessing the Homogeneity of Three Odds Ratios: A Case Study in Small-sample Inference by J.B. Carlin Modeling Rates of Bone Growth and Loss Using Order-Restricted Inference and Stochastic Change Points by R.B. Evans, J. Sedransk and S.L. Hui Estimating Genotype Probabilites in Complex Pedigrees by S.A. Fernandez, R.L. Fernando, A.L. Carriquiry and B. Guldbrandtsen Identifying Carriers of Genetic Modifier Using Nonparametric Bayesian Methods by P.D. Hoff, R.B. Halberg, A. Sheldovsky, W.F. Dove and M.A. Newton Bayesian Tools for EDA and Model Building: A Brainy Study by S.N. MacEachern and M. Peruggia Bayesian Protein Structure Prediction by S.C. Schmidler, J.S. Liu and D.L. Brutlag Bayesian Analysis of Sensory Inputs of a Mobile Robot by P. Sebastiani, M. Ramoni and P. Cohen Hidden Markov Models for Analysis of Biological Rhythm Data by H. Seltman Using Prior Opinions to Examine Sample Size in Two Clinical Trials by C. Tsai and K. Chaloner