This book covers the broad spectrum of system dynamics methodologies for the modelling and simulation of complex systems: systems thinking, causal diagrams, systems structure of stock and flow diagrams, parameter estimation and tests for confidence building in system dynamics models. It includes a comprehensive review of model validation and policy design and provides a practical presentation of system dynamics modelling. It also offers numerous worked-out examples and case studies in diverse fields using STELLA and VENSIM. The system dynamics methodologies presented here can be applied to nearly all areas of research and planning, and the simulations provided make the complicated issues more easily understandable. System Dynamics: Modelling and Simulation is an essential system dynamics and systems engineering textbook for undergraduate and graduate courses. It also offers an excellent reference guide for managersin industry and policy planners who wish to use modelling and simulation to manage complex systems more effectively, as well as researchers in the fields of modelling and simulation-based systems thinking.

Autorentext

Professor Bala has taught the courses on system dynamics and environmental systems for more than three decades to undergraduate and postgraduate students in agricultural engineering at Bangladesh Agricultural University and supervised more than a dozen of MS students and half dozen of PhD students who applied system dynamics in the fields of agriculture, aquaculture, energy and environment, climate change and socio-economic planning at the Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia and Bangladesh Agricultural University. Professor Bala contributed papers in system dynamics in the fields of agriculture, aquaculture, energy and environment, climate change and socio-economic planning and has published 197 papers in peer reviewed international journals. Professor Bala published seven books, of which two are in the areas of system dynamics. These two books in the areas of system dynamics are: (i) Principles of system Dynamics (Agrotech Publishing Academy, Udaipur, India) and (ii) Energy and Environment: Modeling and Simulation (Nova Science Publishers, USA). Professor Bala has provided consultancy and conducted research projects funded by international and local sources. Professor Fatimah has a vast research experience on agricultural marketing and policy issues in Malaysia. She has carried out research on the following areas: marketing, price analysis, food security, structure-conduct-performance of selected Malaysian agricultural crops as well as agricultural policy evaluation. She teaches agricultural marketing, research methodology both for undergraduate and post-graduate levels at the Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM). She was the Director of the Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies, UPM (2005-2014). She has led a team of researchers to develop an econometric model of forecasting and simulation model of the agriculture sector for the Economic Planning Unit, Prime Minister Department, Malaysia. She is also involved in the development of a system dynamics model (T21 model) for the Malaysian economy under the collaboration of the Economic Planning Unit and Millennium Institute, Washington. She is prolific in publications. She has written a total of 20 books, 49 chapters, 34 research reports, 74 journal articles, more than five hundreds of papers in proceedings, and seminars/conferences. She has received research grants from various sources and these include both international and local sources. Associate Professor Kusairi Moohd Noh is currently the Head, Bio-resource and Environmental Policy Laboratory, Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia. His specialisation is in the field of natural resource economics particularly in fisheries economics. He has a total of 40 years of research and consultancy experience in this field where he has received grants from both the international and local agencies.

Inhalt

Part I: Concepts, Methodology and Techniques.- 1: Introduction.- 2: Systems Thinking: System Dynamics.- 3: Causal Loop Diagrams.- 4: Stock Flow Diagrams.- 5: Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis.- 6: Tests for Confidence Building.- 7: Scenario Planning and Modelling.- Part II: Cases and applications.- 8: Modelling of boom and bust of cocoa production systems in Malaysia.- 9: Modeling of hilsafish (Tenulosa ilisha) population in Bangladesh.- 11: Modeling of supply chain of rice milling systems in Bangladesh.- 12: Modeling of solid waste management of Dhaka city in Bangladesh.