Public Support and Illiberal Behavior of Right-wing Populist Governments during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Tabea Geißler

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Master's Thesis from the year 2021 in the subject Politics - International Politics - Topic: Miscellaneous, grade: 1,0, Universit...

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Master's Thesis from the year 2021 in the subject Politics - International Politics - Topic: Miscellaneous, grade: 1,0, University of Tubingen (Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät), language: English, abstract: Against the backdrop of autocratic opportunism and illiberal behavior during Covid-19, there is a large debate in the field of populism and democracy research about whether populist parties and leaders are strengthened or weakened by the Covid-19 crisis. However, due to the newness of the current crisis, the justification for one side or the other is based more on theoretical assumptions than on reliable empirical research, while the existing empirical studies refer exclusively to the first wave of the pandemic. These examinations often imply that populists tend to benefit from the crisis, since their approval rates either slightly increased during the first wave or remained on the same level. However, as the second and third waves unfold in autumn 2020 and winter/spring 2021, a new picture emerges. Right-wing populist governments in Europe on average appear to be losing public support, although this is not the case in non-populist-governed EU member states. This phenomenon seems puzzling, since it would be more likely to expect that populist governments would gain public support through the crisis. This conclusion not only derives from the "hour of the executive", but also to the observation that societies in times of crisis attribute a stronger leadership role to their government and express more allegiance than in ordinary times - a finding also known as the "rally-round-the-flag" effect. This would help right-wing populists to present themselves as strong and decisive crisis leaders, which could strengthen their power and popularity as authoritarian leaders. Against this background, the argument is made that the illiberal behavior of right-wing populists, such as authoritarian leadership, corruption, and discriminatory measures, which is assumed constitutive of their behavior, leads to a decline in public support under the conditions of acute threat. Since the relationship between illiberal behavior by right-wing populist governments during Covid-19 and public support has not been systematically investigated yet, this thesis aims to take a first step in this direction by taking a more nuanced view to gain new empirical knowledge regarding why, when, and how a loss of public support for right-wing populist governments can be observed during the first, second, and third wave of the pandemic. The results support the hypothesis while alternative explanations such as containment measures or the economic situation tend to be less relevant.