Structural Unemployment

High and persistent unemployment rates in Europe during the eighties gave rise to a lively discussion about the nature and causes of joblessness. Among other sources structural unemployment was blamed for the lack of response of unemployment to increasing aggregate demand. Renewed attention was thus devoted to an analysis of the magnitude and the development of structural unemployment as well to its possi­ ble determinants. In this literature, the Beveridge curve experienced a resurrection and, at first glance, it seemed to be an appropriate tool to analyse the aforementioned issues. However, it was soon recognized that the Beveridge curve, i. e. the relation between unemployment and vacancies, was anything but stable, thus requiring a care­ ful distinction between dynamic loops around a (stable?) long-run Beveridge curve and possible shifts due to, say, an increasing mismatch between labor supplied and demanded. The controversy is far from being settled at the time of this writing. This book contains a collection of hitherto unpublished papers which are devoted to a theoretical and econometric analysis of structural unemployment. The papers put considerable emphasis on the question to what extent the Beveridge curve can serve as an adequate tool for such studies. The countries under consideration are Germany and Austria. In what follows a very brief summary of each paper will be outlined. Franz and Siebeck present, at some length, a theoretical and econometric analysis of the Beveridge curve in Germany.

Contenu

A Theoretical and Econometric Analysis of Structural Unemployment in Germany: Reflections on the Beveridge Curve.- 1 Introduction.- 2 Theoretical Analysis.- 2.1 Basic Concept of the Beveridge Curve.- 2.2 Theoretical Aspects of Job Matching.- 2.2.1 Overview of the Model.- 2.2.2 The Firm's Decisions.- 2.2.3 The Job Seeker's Decisions.- 2.2.4 The Matching Process.- 2.2.5 Derivation of the Beveridge Curve.- 3 Empirical Analysis.- 3.1 Data Analysis.- 3.2 Econometric Analysis.- 3.2.1 Data.- 3.2.1.1 Mismatch Indicators: Regional and Professional Mismatch.- 3.2.1.2 Mismatch Indicators: Qualification Mismatches.- 3.2.2 Impact of Explanatory Variables.- 3.3 Estimated Rates of Structural Unemployment.- 4 Conclusions.- A.1 Decisions of the Firm: Second-Order Conditions and Comparative-Static Results.- A.2 The Effects on the Reservation Wage.- A.3 Reactions of the Probability of a Contract, ?2, with Changing Determinants of x0 and w0.- A.4 The Probability ? that a Vacancy is Filled by an Unemployed Person.- On the Identifiability of the Relation Between the Rate of Unemployment and the Vacancy Rate.- 1 Introduction.- 2 A Model of Structural Unemployment.- 3 Panel Data for the Federal Republic of Germany, 1963 to 1986.- 4 The Role of Structural and Cyclical Variables in Explaining the Shifts of the Beveridge Curve.- 5 Causal Relations Between the Shifts of the Beveridge Curve and Cyclical Variables.- 6 Summary and Conclusions.- Developments and Causes of Mismatch Unemployment in West Germany.- 1 Introduction.- 2 Matching through Labor Offices.- 3 Beveridge-Curve and Matching Function.- 4 Analysis of the Duration of Vacancies.- 5 Analysis of the Duration of Unemployment.- 6 The Results in Context.- 7 Political Labor Market Recommendations.- Structural Unemployment in Austria.- 1 Introduction.- 2 U/V Curve and Matching Function.- 3 Empirical Estimates of the Austrian Beveridge Curve.- 4 Why has the Austrian U/V Curve Shifted Outwards?.- 4.1 Occupational, Regional and Qualificational Mismatch.- 4.2 Lower Search Intensity of the Unemployed.- 4.3 Increased Selectiveness of the Firms.- 4.4 Hysteresis.- 4.5 The Econometric Analysis.- 5 Conclusions.- A.1 The Calculation of the Corrected Vacancy Rate.- A.2 Calculation of the Underutilization Rate of Labour.