Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading

Hugely popular market guru updates his popular trading strategy for a post-crisis world

From Larry Williams--one of the most popular and respected technical analysts of the past four decades--Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading, Second Edition provides the blueprint necessary for sound and profitable short-term trading in a post-market meltdown economy. In this updated edition of the evergreen trading book, Williams shares his years of experience as a highly successful short-term trader, while highlighting the advantages and disadvantages of what can be a very fruitful yet potentially dangerous endeavor.

• Offers market wisdom on a wide range of topics, including chaos, speculation, volatility breakouts, and profit patterns

• Explains fundamentals such as how the market moves, the three most dominant cycles, when to exit a trade, and how to hold on to winners

• Includes in-depth analysis of the most effective short-term trading strategies, as well as the author's winning technical indicators

Short-term trading offers tremendous upside. At the same time, the practice is also extremely risky. Minimize your risk and maximize your opportunities for success with Larry Williams's Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading, Second Edition.

Auteur

LARRY R. WILLIAMS has been trading for almost fifty years and is one of the most highly regarded short-term traders in the world. Larry has taught thousands to trade, won several trading championships, and since 1970 has been writing bestselling books based on his technical indicator, Williams %R, developed in 1966 and still published daily in major financial newspapers and on finance and investing sites. Between trading, researching, and developing trading tools, he ran twice for the U.S. Senate, was a board member of the National Futures Association, and has received numerous awards, including Futures magazine's first Doctor of Futures Award, the Omega Research Lifetime Achievement Award, and Traders International 2005 Trader of the Year. The Mayor of San Diego declared October 6th, 2002 Larry Williams' Day. Larry has been featured on CNBC and Fox News, and has been interviewed and quoted in more publications than he can keep track of.

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Praise for the First Edition:

Larry is the only person I know who can mix systems and rules with confessions of his soul. This book should have universal appeal to not only the trading world but to all who apply themselves to the laws of the universe. This is a study of the self, the markets, and the interfacing of the two. LINDA RASCHKE, President, LBR Group, Inc., CTA Larry Williams' contributions to the study of technical analysis are well documented and indisputable. I have learned more from Larry than all other traders combined. His techniques are original, clever, and fresh. The depth and breadth of his knowledge is mind-boggling. I highly recommend it. TOM DeMARK, author of New Market Timing Techniques and The New Science of Technical Analysis Having known Larry for 25 years, I can truly say that this is his 'magnum opus' the culmination of a brilliant career; must reading for anyone who trades futures with success as their goal! JAKE BERNSTEIN, President, MBH Commodity Advisors, Northbrook, Illinois

Contenu
Acknowledgments xi

Introduction You Are Already a Commodity Trader 1

My Most Important Market Belief 4

The Beginning of My Career as a Speculator 5

The Ride of a Lifetime 8

Chapter 1 Making Order Out of Short-Term Chaos 9

How I Learned about the Market 9

Charting the Market 11

The Nonrandom Market 13

Understanding Market Structure 15

Market Structure Will Never Change 21

Short-Sell Pattern 27

Target Time and Trailing Stops 28

Recap 32

Chapter 2 It's a Question of Price and Time 33

All You Will Ever Need to Know about Cycles 33

The Natural Cycle of Range Change 39

Where the Trend Is with YouThe Second Power-Play Price Pattern 50

Recap 54

Chapter 3 The Real Secret to Short-Term Trading 59

It's All about Time 61

Bankrolling Hotshot Traders 62

Proving the Point 65

How to Make the Most Money 68

Recap 70

Chapter 4 Volatility BreakoutsThe Momentum Breakthrough 71

Simple Daily Range Breakouts 76

A Look at Volatility in the S&P 500 80

Separating Buyers from Sellers to Find Volatility Using Market Swings 95

Results 96

One Step Further 97

Recap 98

Chapter 5 The Theory of Short-Term Trading 99

What Is Wrong about the Information Age 103

E H Harriman's Rule of Making Millions 104

Recap 105

Chapter 6 Getting Closer to the Truth 107

The Market Is Not a Coin Flip: Random Walk or Cootner versus Cohen (Cohen Wins) 108

Gold TDOM Study 117

Bond TDOM Study 118

Monthly Road Maps 120

Recap 123

Chapter 7 Patterns to Profit 125

The Common Element 126

The Questions to Ask 131

My Smash Day Patterns 132

How to Use Smash Day Patterns 136

Specialists' Trap 137

A Vital NoteThis Works on Shorter Time Frames as Well 141

Oops! This Is Not a Mistake 145

S&P Oops! Trading 151

Recap 152

Chapter 8 Separating the Buyers from the Sellers 153

Greatest Swing Value 155

Stock Index Trading with Greatest Swing Value 156

Some Pointers 160

Recap 161

Chapter 9 Short-Term Trading from a Quote Screen 163

How a Quote-Screen Trader Makes Money 165

Swing Points as Trend Change Indication 166

The Three-Bar High/Low System 167

A New Indicator for Short-Term Traders: Willspread 170

Willspread and the S&P 500 Stock Index 174

Recap 180

Chapter 10 Special Short-Term Situations 181

Month-End Trading in Stock Indexes 181

Target Months 184

Making It Better 184

Month-End Trading in the Bond Market 186

Getting Specific 187

Better and Better 188

A Time to Sell 191

Recap 193

Chapter 11 When to Get Out of Your Trades 195

Chapter 12 Thoughts on the Business of Speculation 197

Exits before Entries 197

What Speculation Is All About 200

It's about Time 201

Essential Points about Speculation 202

Recap 215

Chapter 13 Money ManagementThe Keys to the Kingdom 217

Most Traders Use a Hit-and-Miss Approach 218

Approaches to Money ManagementOne Is Right for You 218

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Money Management 219

Looking in New Directions, Drawdown as an Asset 222

Back to Ralph: 2011 Money Management Breakthrough 228

The Kelly Ratio Mirage 229

Recap 233 Chapter 14 From Kennedy to Obama, Thoughts from 50 Years of Trading 235</p&g...