How Long Do We Live?

The most widely used measure of longevity is the period life expectancy at birth which is calculated from age specific death rates by life table methods. In 2002, John Bongaarts and Griffith Feeney introduced the revolutionary idea that this conventional estimate of period life expectancy is distorted by a tempo effect whenever longevity is changing. The tempo effect is defined as an inflation or deflation of the period incidence of a demographic event resulting from a rise or fall in the mean age at which the event occurs. Some demographers agree with this radical argument; others disagree. The book reviews the debate on how best to measure period longevity. In the various chapters, leading experts in demography critically examine the existence of the tempo effect in mortality, present extensions and applications, and compare period and cohort longevity measures. The book provides a deeper understanding of and new insights into the fundamental question "How long do we live"?

Résumé

This book reviews the debate on how best to measure period longevity. Leading experts in demography critically examine the existence of the tempo effect in mortality, present extensions and applications, and compare period and cohort longevity measures.

Contenu
How long do we live? Demographic models and reflections on tempo effects: An introduction.- How long do we live? Demographic models and reflections on tempo effects: An introduction.- Theoretical basis for the mortality tempo effect.- Estimating mean lifetime.- The quantum and tempo of life-cycle events.- Critiques, extensions and applications of the mortality tempo effect.- Demographic translation and tempo effects: An accelerated failure time perspective.- Lifesaving, lifetimes and lifetables.- Tempo and its tribulations.- Tempo effects in mortality: An appraisal.- Increments to life and mortality tempo.- Mortality tempo versus removal of causes of mortality: Opposite views leading to different estimations of life expectancy.- Tempo effect on age-specific death rates.- Mortality tempo-adjustment: Theoretical considerations and an empirical application.- Comparison of period and cohort measures of longevity.- Five period measures of longevity.- Found in translation? A cohort perspective on tempo-adjusted life expectancy.- Conclusions.- Afterthoughts on the mortality tempo effect.- Turbulence in lifetables: Demonstration by four simple examples.