Economic Consequences of Population Change in Industrialized Countries

The recent experience of industrialized countries with low fer­ tility and persistent immigration has stimulated interest in the eco­ nomic effects of population change in industrial countries and has led to new research in population economics. In Germany, however, where these demographic trends were perhaps most pronounced, research on po­ pulation economics has lagged. During recent years more German econo­ mists have also turned to this topic. This upsurge in research activity motivated the organisation of an international conference entitled "Economic Consequences of Population Change in Industrialized Coun­ tries", which was held from June 1 to June 3, 1983 at the University of Paderborn, W. Germany. The conference was designed to discuss and assess the new theoretical and empirical research work on the effects of population change on the economy, to intensify the international cooperation and to stimulate the research in population economics in W. Germany. This volume contains 23 revised versions of the 27 papers pre­ sented at the conference. Although the topics of the papers are di­ verse, they can be grouped into six general themes: The first section, including papers by Cigno, Steinmann, and Simon, deals with models of the secular interrelationships between population change, technical progress and economic growth. The models are built upon the framework of neoclassical growth theory and are extended by the assumption that the rate of technical progress is positively linked with population growth or population density.

Contenu

1 Population Change, Technical Progress and Economic Growth.- Consumption vs. Procreation in Economic Growth.- A Model of the History of Demographic-Economic Growth.- Research on Population and Productivity Growth.- 2 Economic Effects of Low Fertility: Mathematical Models.- Population Growth and Income Distribution.- Human Fertility and the Distribution of Wealth.- Demographical Influences on Social Security Burden.- 3 Economic Effects of Low Fertility: Simulation Models.- The Time Path of the Economy as the Population Moves Towards a Stationary State.- Population and Per-Capita Income in Simulation Models.- A Model of Regional Economic Growth. Simulation Results for the Case of Population Decline.- 4 Sectoral Analyses of the Effects of Low Fertility: Consumption, Investment and Agriculture.- The Impact of Population Change on Consumption.- Slowing Population Growth and Investment Demand: The West German Case.- Demographic-Economic Interaction in a Shrinking Agricultural Sector: Population and Labor Market Effects in the Federal Republic of Germany.- 5 Population Change and Social Transfers.- Demographic Change and Old-Age Security.- What does it Cost to Support the Young and the Old Generations?.- The Monetary Cost of a Child.- 6 Population Change and Labor Market.- Population Change, Labor Market and Unemployment - The Case of the German Domestic Labor Force from 1965-1982.- Aspects of Demographic Unemployment.- Demographic Aspects of Labor Market Efficiency.- Demographic Influences on the Mobility of German Labor Stock.- Measuring the Impact of Structural Change on Groups in the Australian Labor Market.- Immigration and Population Change in Australia: A Test of the Dual Labor Market Hypothesis.- The Dynamics of Women's Labor Force Participation and Fertility: A Simultaneous ARX-Model.- The Impact of Population Change on Enterprise Behavior.