The Elements of a Nonlinear Theory of Economic Dynamics

Elements of a Nonlinear Theory of Economic Dynamics provides both a framework and a survey of its needs. First, principle results and techniques of the theory relevant to applications in dynamic economics are discussed, then their application in view of older endogenous cycle theories are considered in a unified mathematical framework. Models incorporating the government budget constraint and the Goodwin model are analysed using the method of averaging and the centre manifold theory. The dynamic instability problem is solved by placing models in a nonlinear framework.

Contenu

1. The Need for a Nonlinear Theory of Economic Dynamics.- 1.1 Introduction.- 1.2 Early Nonlinear Theories.- 1.3 Development of the Theory of Dynamical Systems.- 1.4 Problems in the Current State of Economic Dynamics.- 2. The Theory of Dynamical Systems.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 Existence and Uniqueness Results.- 2.3 The Linear System x - Ax.- 2.4 Nonlinear Systems on the Plane.- 2.5 Analysis of Limit Cycles.- 2.6 Relaxation Oscillations.- 2.7 Higher Dimensional Nonlinear Systems.- Appendix 2.1.- 3. A New Look at Some old Endogenous Cycle Theories.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 A General Model of Multiplier- Accelerator Interactions.- 3.3 Goodwin's Nonlinear Accelerator Model.- 3.4 A Saturation Type Nonlinear Accelerator.- Appendix 3.1.- Appendix 3.2.- 4. Analysis of the Effects of Time Lags and Nonlinearities in Macroeconomic Models Incorporating the Government Budget Restraint.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 Specification of the Model.- 4.3 Dynamic Behaviour of the Model.- Appendix 4.1.- Appendix 4.2.- 5. Limit Cycles in Higher Dimensions - the Effect of Time Lags on Goodwin's Model of Cyclical Growth.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 The Goodwin Model with a Time-Lag.- 5.3 Local Stability Analysis.- 5.4 Approximation of the Limit Cycle.- 5.5 Discussion.- Appendix 5.1.- Appendix 5.2.- Appendix 5.3.- Appendix 5.4.- Appendix 5.5.- Appendix 5.6.- Appendix 5.7.- 6. The Cobweb Model: Its Instability and the Onset of Chaos.- 6.1 Introduction.- 6.2 The Nonlinear Cobweb Model.- 6.3 Discrete Time Dynamics.- 6.4 Period Doubling to Chaos.- 6.5 Onset of Chaos in the Cobweb Model.- 6.6 Discussion.- 7. Perfect Foresight Models and the Dynamic Instability Problem From a Higher Viewpoint.- 7.1 Introduction.- 7.2 The Basic Nonlinear Model of Monetary Dynamics.- 7.3 The Naive Dynamics of the Perfect Foresight Case; ? = 0.- 7.4 The Dynamics of the Adaptive Expectations Case; ? > 0.- 7.5 Adaptive Expectations as ??0+.- 7.6 The Discrete Time Model of Monetary Dynamics.- 7.7 Discussion.- Appendix 7.1.- Appendix 7.2.- Appendix 7.3.- Appendix 7.4.- Appendix 7.5.- Appendix 7.6.- 8. Conclusions and Further Developments.- References.