Cognitive Strategies in Stochastic Thinking

Auteur
Roland W. Scholz chairs the Natural and Social Science Interface in the Department of Environmental Sciences at the ETH (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), Zürich. A mathematician, psychologist and decision theorist by training, he is particularly interested in environmental systems analysis, human-environment interactions, environmental decisions and risk assessment. He has led numerous large-scale transdisciplinary processes to foster sustainable transitions of urban and regional systems.

Contenu
Toward an Understanding of Individual Decision Making Under Uncertainty.- I.- The 'Base-Rate Fallacy' Heuristics and/or the Modeling of Judgmental Biases by Information Weights.- A Conceptualization of the Multitude of Strategies in Base-Rate Problems.- Modes of Thought and Problem Framing in the Stochastic Thinking of Students and Experts (Sophisticated Decision Makers).- II.- Stochastic Thinking, Modes of Thought, and A Framework for the Process and Structure of Human Information Processing.