Breakthroughs in Statistics

McCrimmon, having gotten Grierson's attention, continued: "A breakthrough, you say? If it's in economics, at least it can't be dangerous. Nothing like gene engineering, laser beams, sex hormones or international relations. That's where we don't want any breakthroughs. " (Galbraith, 1. K. (1990) A Tenured Profes sor, Houghton Mifflin; Boston. ) To judge [astronomy] in this way [a narrow utilitarian point of view] demon strates not only how poor we are, but also how small, narrow, and indolent our minds are; it shows a disposition always to calculate the payolTbefore the work, a cold heart and a lack of feeling for everything that is great and honors man. One can unfortunately not deny that such a mode of thinking is not uncommon in our age, and I am convinced that this is closely connected with the catastro phes which have befallen many countries in recent times; do not mistake me, I do not talk of the general lack of concern for science, but of the source from which all this has come, of the tendency to everywhere look out for one's advan tage and to relate everything to one's physical well-being, of the indilTerence towards great ideas, ofthe aversion to any elTort which derives from pure enthu siasm: I believe that such attitudes, if they prevail, can be decisive in catas trophes of the kind we have experienced. [Gauss, K. F. : Astronomische An trittsvorlesung (cited from Buhler, W. K. (1981) Gauss: A Biographical Study, Springer: New York)].

Auteur
Samuel Kotz, PhD, honorary Doctor of Science, is professor and research scholar at the Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering at George Washington University in Washington, D.C.

Texte du rabat

This is the second of a two volume collection of seminal papers in the statistical sciences written during the past 100 years. These papers have each had an outstanding influence on the development of statistical theory and practice over the last century. Each paper is preceded by an introduction written by an authority in the field providing background information and assessing its influence. Readers will enjoy a fresh outlook on now well-established features of statistical techniques and philosophy by becoming acquainted with the ways they have been developed. It is hoped that some readers will be stimulated to study some of the references provided in the Introduction (and also in the papers themselves) and so attain a deeper background knowledge of the basis of their work.

Résumé
"It may be risky to recommend that everyone should own this book... but I take that risk. Not only should we have it in our personal libraries, but we should loan it to our students. They will use it the same way we do, beginning with the famous masterpieces, then reading introductions of works they may not have seen before, and finally reading the papers..." (Journal of the Am. Statistical Assoc.)

Contenu
On the Criterion that a Given System of Deviations from the Probable in the Case of a Correlated System of Variables is Such that it Can be Reasonably Supposed to Have Arisen from Random Sampling.- The Probable Error of a Mean.- Statistical Methods for Research Workers.- The Arrangement of Field Experiments.- On the Empirical Determination of a Distribution.- On the Two Different Aspects of the Representative Method: The Method of Stratified Sampling and the Method of Purposive Selection.- Relations Between Two Sets of Variates.- Individual Comparisons by Ranking Methods.- On Some Useful Inefficient Statistics.- Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression. I.- Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression. II.- On the Experimental Attainment of Optimum Conditions.- Nonparametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations.- Sequential Design of Experiments.- Some Statistical Aspects of Adaptive Optimization and Control.- The Future of Data Analysis.- Maximum Likelihood in Three-Way Contingency Tables.- Robust Estimation of a Location Parameter.- Regression Models and Life-Tables.- Generalized Linear Models.- Bootstrap Methods: Another Look at the Jackknife.