Mathematical modelling has become in recent years an essential tool for the prediction of environmental change and for the development of sustainable policies. Yet, many of the uncertainties associated with modelling efforts appear poorly understood by many, especially by policy makers. This book attempts for the first time to cover the full range of issues related to model uncertainties, from the subjectivity of setting up a conceptual model of a given system, all the way to communicating the nature of model uncertainties to non-scientists and accounting for model uncertainties in policy decisions. Theoretical chapters, providing background information on specific steps in the modelling process and in the adoption of models by end-users, are complemented by illustrative case studies dealing with soils and global climate change. All the chapters are authored by recognized experts in their respective disciplines, and provide a timely and uniquely comprehensive coverage of an important field.

Systematic coverage of a crucial aspect of environmental modelling Effectively provides a bridge between scientists and policy makers Theoretical background illustrated by topical case studies

Inhalt
Model Conceptualization.- Spatially explicit versus lumped models in catchment hydrology experiences from two case studies.- Cellular automata modeling of environmental systems.- Agent-based modeling of socio-economic processes related to the environment: Example of land-use change.- Verification Of Models.- Interval analysis and verification of mathematical models.- Stochastic arithmetic and verification of mathematical models.- Calibration and Sensitivity Analysis.- Model calibration/parameter estimation techniques and conceptual model error.- User subjectivity in Monte Carlo modelling of pesticide exposure.- Recommended practices in global sensitivity analysis.- Evaluation Of Models.- Predictive uncertainty assessment in real time flood forecasting.- Communicating Modelling Results And Uncertainties.- Communicating uncertainty to policy makers.- Communicating scientific uncertainty for decision making about CO2 storage.- Decision Making On The Basis Of Model Prediction.- Approaches to handling uncertainty when setting environmental exposure standards.- Soil Carbon Dynamics.- Sources of uncertainty in global modelling of future soil organic carbon storage.- Uncertainties related to the temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition.- Global Climate Change.- Media representational practices in the Anthropocene Era.- The stern review and the uncertainties in the economics of climate change.- Natural Attenuation of Contaminants and Risk Assessment.- Phytotechnologies: how plants and bacteria work together.