This book originates from the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Synthesis and Analysis Methods for Safety and Reliability Studies held at Sogesta Conference Centre, Urbino, Italy, 3-14 July 1978. The Institute, co-directed by Prof. E.J. Henley and Dr. G. Volta, was attended by 67 persons from twelve countries. The focus of the Institute was on theoretical and applied aspects of reliability and risk analysis methodologies. The Institute was composed of lectures, workshops and gu~ded discussions. From the large quantity of written material that was used and produced during the Institute, a number of papers introducing the most relevant research results and trends in the field have been selected. The papers have been edited, partly rewritten and rearranged in order to obtain in the end an integrat ed exposition of methods and techniques for reliability analysis and computation of complex systems. The book is divided into four sections which correspond to fairly homogeneous areas from a methodological point of view. Each section is preceded by an introduction prepared by the Editors which aims at helping the readers to put in perspective and appre ciate the contribution of each paper to the subject of the section.

Inhalt
Section 1 - Binary Systems.- by the Editors.- Fault Tree Analysis by List-Processing Techniques.- PATREC, a Computer Code for Fault-Tree Calculation.- Repairable Multiphase Systems: Markov and Fault-Tree Approaches for Reliability Evaluation.- Reliability Parameters for Chemical Process Systems.- About the Definition of Coherency in Binary System Reliability Analysis.- Regeneration Diagrams.- Uncertainty Propagation in Fault-Tree Analysis.- Section 2 - Multistate Systems. Logic Diagrams.- by the Editors.- The CAT Methodology for Fault-Tree Construction.- L.A.M. Technique: Systematic Generation of Logical Structures in System Reliability Studies.- Multivalued Logic in the Representation of Engineering Systems.- Fault-Tree Analysis with Multistate Components.- Section 3 - Multistate Systems. Other Methods.- by the Editors.- Reliability Analysis of a Repairable Single Unit under General Age Dependence.- Use of Markov Processes for Reliability Problems.- Some Consideration on the Markov Approach to Reliability.- How to Use the Minimal Cuts of Fault Tree Analysis in Markov Modelling.- Response Surface Methodology in Risk Analysis.- Optimization Problems in System Supervision.- Calculation of Downtimes Resulting from Parallel Subsystem Repair.- Section 4 - Man-System Interactions.- by the Editors.- Notes on Human Error Analysis and Prediction.- Improving System Reliability by the Elimination of a Class of Design Errors.- LNG Operations Risk Analyses: Evaluation and Comparison of Techniques and Results.- Real Time Analysis of Process Plant Alarms.- Material Control Study: A Directed Graph and Fault-Tree Procedure for Adversary Event Set Generation.- The Availability of a Computer System Communications Network as Perceived by a User and Viewed Centrally.- Organizing Committee and List of Participants.