This is a brilliant book. A must read for anyone who aspires to think intelligently about the world we live in. Uncertainty is all-pervasive: in our personal lives; in responding to social and political issues; in sorting truth from fiction; and in understanding and mitigating global challenges. David Spiegelhalter provides the tools for thinking about all aspects of uncertainty in a rational way>

Autorentext
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE is Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge. His bestselling book The Art of Statistics has been published in eleven languages. He was knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics, was President of the Royal Statistical Society (2017 2018) and became a Non-Executive Director of the UK Statistics Authority in 2020.

Klappentext

'Probably the UK's greatest living statistician' Telegraph**

From the UK's 'statistical national treasure', a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty

**We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don't know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?

David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.

In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.

Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know