Demography relates observable facts about individuals to the dynamics of populations. If the dynamics are linear and do not change over time, the classical theory of Lotka (1907) and Leslie (1945) is the central tool of demography. This book addresses the situation when the assumption of constancy is dropped. In many practical situations, a population will display unpredictable variation over time in its vital rates, which must then be described in statistical terms. Most of this book is concerned with the theory of populations which are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although other kinds of variation (e. g. , cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results here are directed at demographers of humans and at popula tion biologists. The uneven mathematical level is dictated by the material, but the book should be accessible to readers interested in population the ory. (Readers looking for background or prerequisites will find much of it in Hal Caswell's Matrix population models: construction, analysis, and in terpretation (Sinauer 1989) ). This book is in essence a progress report and is deliberately brief; I hope that it is not mystifying. I have not attempted to be complete about either the history or the subject, although most sig nificant results and methods are presented.

Klappentext

This book is mainly concerned with the theory of populations that are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although some other kinds of variation (e.g. cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results are directed at demographers of humans and at population biologists. Subjects discussed include population projection, sensitivity analysis of growth rates, and life-histories in random environments. The book is in essence a progress report and is deliberately brief.

Inhalt
1 Introduction.- 2 Beginnings: Classical Theory.- 3 Deterministic Temporal Variation.- 4 Random Rates: General Theory.- 5 Examples.- 6 Ess and Allele Invasion.- 7 Moments of the Population Vector.- 8 Random Survival or Fertility: Exact Results.- 9 Age Structure: Bounds, Growth, Convergence.- 10 Synergy, Constraints, Convexity.- 11 Sensitivity Analysis of Growth Rate.- 12 Growth Rates for Small Noise.- 13 Population Structure for Small Noise.- 14 Population Projection.- 15 Life History and Iteroparity.- 16 Life History Evolution: Delayed Flowering.