The aim of this book is to tackle the question of what the European territory will look like over the next fifteen years by providing quali-quantitative territorial scenarios for the enlarged Europe, under different assumptions on future globalisation strategies of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and East and West European countries. The approach is as neutral as possible vis-à-vis the results, leaving to a new forecasting model, the MASST model, built by the authors, to produce the tendencies and behavioural paths of regional GDP and population growth in each individual European region under alternative assumptions on the competitiveness strategies of different blocks of countries. The results are accompanied by strong policy messages intended to encourage long-term strategic thinking among a wide range of actors, scientists and policy makers in response to the risks and opportunities that the European territory will face.

Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

Autorentext

Roberta Capello is full professor of regional economics at Politecnico di Milano and president of the Regional Science Association International. She holds a Ph.D. in Economics obtained at the Free University of Amsterdam in 1993. Ugo Fratesi is associate professor of regional and urban economics at thePolitecnico di Milano since December, 2010. He is member of the editorial boardand book review editor of the Italian Journal of Regional Science since 2008. Heis treasurer and member of the Council of the Italian Section of the RegionalScience Association International (AISRe). He is author of two books and severalpapers published in refereed journals in the field of regional economics, especiallyon the themes of regional growth, disparities, and policy. Laura Resmini is associate professor of Economic policy at the University of Valle d'Aosta, senior researcher at ISLA, Centre for Latin American and Transition Country Studies at Bocconi University (Milan).

Inhalt
From Forecasts to Quantitative Foresights: Territorial Scenarios for an Enlarged Europe.- From Forecasts to Quantitative Foresights: Territorial Scenarios for an Enlarged Europe.- Theoretical and Empirical Underpinnings.- Space and Theoretical Approaches to Regional Growth.- Regional Competitiveness: Towards a Concept of Territorial Capital.- Space and Empirical Approaches to Regional Growth.- National and Regional Econometric Models.- Conceptual and Methodological Specifications.- The MASST Model: A Generative Forecasting Model of Regional Growth.- The Estimation Procedure: Data and Results.- The Simulation Procedure: The Algorithm, the Target Variables and the Stability of the Model.- Scenarios for the Enlarged Europe: Regional Quantitative Foresights.- Driving Forces of Change: The Baseline Scenario.- Global Challenges and European Strategies: Alternative Scenarios.- Territorial Images of the Future: The Quantitative Foresights Results.- Towards a Conclusion: Regional and Territorial Policy Recommendations.