Autorentext

Robert M. Clark has more than five decades of U.S. intelligence community experience. A USAF lieutenant colonel (retired), Dr. Clark served as an electronics warfare officer and intelligence officer. At the CIA, he was a senior analyst and group chief responsible for developing analytic methodologies. He was cofounder and CEO of the Scientific and Technical Analysis Corporation, a privately held company serving the U.S. intelligence community. Clark holds an SB from MIT, a PhD in electrical engineering from the University of Illinois, and a JD from George Washington University. Beyond analyzing wicked intelligence issues, his passion is writing on the topic of intelligence. His books include Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach (5th edition, 2016), The Technical Collection of Intelligence (2010), and Intelligence Collection (2014). He is coauthor, with Dr. William Mitchell, of Target-Centric Network Modeling (2015) and Deception: Counterdeception and Counterintelligence (2019); and coeditor, with Dr. Mark Lowenthal, of Intelligence Collection: The Five Disciplines (2015). Dr. Clark also develops and teaches courses for audiences in academia, national intelligence, and the military. He currently serves as an adjunct professor at the Johns Hopkins University teaching graduate courses.

Klappentext

This classic text delivers a consistent, clear method for teaching intelligence analysis, demonstrating how a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis.

Inhalt

Preface
Acknowledgments
Part I: The Process, The Participants, and the Product
Chapter 1: Introduction
Why Intelligence Fails
What this Book Is About
Summary
Chapter 2: Intelligence in the Age of Contested Norms and Persistent Disorder
Nature of Twenty-First-Century Conflict
Tools of Conflict
Synergy of the Tools
The Function of Intelligence
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process
The Traditional Intelligence Cycle
Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process
The Target
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 4: The Customer
Overview of Customers
Understanding the Customer
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 5: The Analyst
Critical and Logical Thinking
Objectivity
Broad Perspective
Good Instincts
The All-source Analyst's Role
The Analysis Team
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 6: The Analytic Network
The US National Intelligence Network
Homeland Security and Law Enforcement
Military
Nongovernmental Entities
Network Collaboration and Sharing
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 7: The Intelligence Product
Intelligence Research
Current Intelligence
Indications and Warning
What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce?
Constraints on the Intelligence Product
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Part II: The Analysis Process
Chapter 8: The Intelligence Issue
Preliminary Questions
Issue Definition
Issue Decomposition
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 9: Target Models
Modeling the Intelligence Target
General Target Models
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 10: The Target Framework
Creating a Target Framework
Issue 1: Al-Shabaab Ideology
Issue 2: Influencing Azerbaijan
Issue 3: The Monopolitania Biological Warfare Threat
Alternative and Competitive Target Frameworks
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 11: Analyzing Existing Intelligence
Reviewing Existing Finished Intelligence
Acquiring Raw Intelligence
Evaluating Evidence
Combining the Evidence
Structured Argumentation
A Note about the Role of Information Technology
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 12: The Information Sources
Filling Gaps
Using the Issue Decomposition and Target Framework
Identifying Gaps
Developing the Collection Strategy
Executing Collection Strategies
Analyst-Collector Interaction
Evaluating Collection
Collection Requirements
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 13: Denial, Deception, and Signaling
Denial
Deception
Defense against Denial and Deception: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods
Countering Denial and Deception
Signaling
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 14: Gaining Customer Acceptance
Structuring the Message
Presenting the Message
Reviewing the Analytic Product
Customer Interaction
Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In
Aftermath: Dealing with Unexpected Outcomes
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Part III: Anticipatory Intelligence
Chapter 15: Anticipatory Analysis: Forces
Background Forces
Synergy
Causal Models
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 16: Anticipatory Analysis: Methodology
Convergent and Divergent Phenomena
The Estimative Approach
Unintended Consequences
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 17: Scenarios
Why Use Scenarios?
Types of Scenarios
Scenario Perspectives
How to Construct Scenarios
Example Scenario: Escalation Ladders and Lattices
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 18: Systems Modeling and Analysis
Systems Analysis Methodology
Performance
Process
Risk
Cost
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 19: Relationship Modeling and Analysis
Link Models
Network Models
Network Analysis
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 20: Geospatial Modeling and Analysis
Static Geospatial Models
Dynamic Geospatial Models
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 21: Simulation Modeling
Types of Simulations
Using Simulations
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 22: Prescriptive Intelligence
The Process
Scenarios
Operations Research
Simulations
Prescriptive Analytics
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 23: An AI-Enabled Version of the Target-Centric Approach
Introduction
A Possible Future Scenario
Conclusion: Can This Work?
Summary
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter 24: Case Study: A Tale of Two NIEs
The Yugoslavia NIE
The Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE
Capstone Critical Thinking Questions
List of Commonly Used Acronyms
Index
About the Author