This book enables analysts in government and the private sector as well as policy advisors and decision makers to assess global risks and opportunities systematically, make well-founded and informed decisions, and anticipate the unanticipated. The authors illuminate the basics of intuitive and analytical thinking and how structured techniques can mitigate the impact of cognitive biases, misapplied heuristics, and intuitive traps. Three case studies illustrate how to apply over 30 Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) with step-by-step instructions. The final chapter focuses on how to optimize the impact of your analytic product, be it a paper, briefing, or digital display.

Integrates cognitive psychology with Structured Analytic Techniques to produce high impact intelligence analysis Provides clear and concise guidance for improving decision-making and critical thinking and writing skills Shows how structured techniques are applied to three real-world case studies

Autorentext

Randolph H. Pherson was Co-Founder and Managing Director of Pherson Associates, LLC and CEO of Globalytica, LLC. He had taught advanced analytic techniques and critical thinking skills to analysts in most US Intelligence Community agencies, in ten of the Fortune 100 companies, and in many countries around the world including the UK, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Spain, Romania, Australia, Saudi Arabia, and Hong Kong.

Ole Donner is the founder of "Strukturierte Analyse Deutschland" (Structured Analysis Germany) and in this position acts as a trainer and consultant for governmental institutions such as the Criminal Police, intergovernmental organizations such as NATO as well as national and international companies with the aim of enhancing their intelligence and analysis capabilities. Mr. Donner is also a Research Fellow at the Institute for Intelligence and Security Management (I2SM) at the NBS Northern Business School.

Oliver Gnad is the founder and managing director of the "Bureau fuer Zeitgeschehen" (Bureau of Current Affairs), a Frankfurt-based think-and-do-tank specialised in strategic foresight and scenario planning. He is a Senior Non-Resident Fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, lecturer at the Berlin-based Hertie School and certified by Pherson Associates, LLC as a Senior Instructor of Structured Analytic Techniques.

Inhalt

Chapter 1. Setting the Stage.- Chapter 2. Understanding How We Think: System I and System 2.- Chapter 3. Conceptualizing Your Topic.- Chapter 4. Blackout In Berlin!.- Chapter 5. Terror in Stockholm.- Chapter 6. Conflict or Cooperation in the Arctic?.- Chapter 7. Optimizing the Impact of Your Product.- Chapter 8. Outlook.