This book covers the low fertility in China that has drawn wide attention and exerts a far-reaching influence on the population development. In this book, with population census and sample survey data, and mathematical demographic methods and statistical methods, the authors systematically examined China's fertility levels over the past decades, fertility patterns, changes in birth numbers, projected the future population and simulated the 4-2-1 family structure and families bereaved of their only child. The authors developed a series of models and methods, got some important results, and drew some important conclusions, which provides reference for understanding the changing trend in China's fertility levels and patters, and for further relaxing China's fertility policy.

Elucidates China's fertility level Projects future fertility and population and simulated two type families Develops some new models in fertility analysis

Autorentext

Quanbao Jiang is a professor of Demography at the Institute for Population and Development Studies, Xi’an Jiaotong University, China. His research interests include demographic analysis and public policy, low fertility, gender imbalance. His English book—Gender Imbalance and Marriage Squeeze—will soon be published with Routledge.

Shucai Yang is an assistant professor of Demography at School of Political Science and Law, University of Jinan, China. Her research interests include low fertility and demographic analysis.

Inhalt

Introduction.- Controversies Over Fertility Levels.- Indirect Estimation of Fertility Levels.- Analysis of Fertility Levels with Multiple Indicators.- Regional Differences in Fertility Indicators.- Modeling and Projection of the Fertility Pattern of First Births.- Fertility Rate and Age-Specific Patterns: Model Fitting and Confidence Intervals.- Parity-Sex Composition and Next Childbirth.- Fertility Intention, Son preference and Second Childbirth.- Sex-selective Abortions over the Four Decades.- Decomposition of Changes in Fertility Levels.- Decomposition of Changes in the Number of Births.- Projection of Fertility.- Fertility Level and Population Development.- 4-2-1 Family Structure.- Shidu Family.