Monitoring the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: Source Processes and Explosion Yield Estimation

Pure appl. geophys., by 161 nations. Entry of the treaty into force, however, is still uncertain since it requires ratification by all 44 nations that have some nuclear capability and, as of 15 June 2001, only 31 of those nations have done so. Although entry of the CTBT into force is still uncertain, seismologists and scientists in related fields, such as radionuclides, have proceeded with new research on issues relevant to monitoring compliance with it. Results of much of that research may be used by the International Monitoring System, headquartered in Vienna, and by several national centers and individual institutions, to monitor compliance with the CTBT. New issues associated with CTBT monitoring in the 21st century have presented scientists with many new challenges. They must be able to effectively monitor com pliance by several countries that have not previously been nuclear powers. Effective monitoring requires that we be able to detect and locate much smaller nuclear events than ever before and to distinguish them from small earthquakes and other types of explosions. We must have those capabilities in regions that are seismically active and geologically complex, and where seismic waves might not propagate efficiently.

Inhalt
Source Processes.- Effects of Rock Damage on Seismic Waves Generated by Explosions.- Wave Generation from Explosions in Rock Cavities.- Regional Magnitude Scaling, Transportability, and MsmbDiscrimination at Small Magnitudes.- Shallow Velocity Structure at the Shagan River Test Site in Kazakhstan.- The Kirovskiy Explosion of September 29, 1996: Example of a CTB Event Notification for a Routine Mining Blast.- Source Directivity, Signal Decorrelation, Spectral Modulation and Analysis of Spatio-temporal Patterns of Multiple Explosions.- Seismic Source Characteristics of Soviet Peaceful Nuclear Explosions.- Explosion Yield Estimation.- Seismic Source Characteristics of Nuclear Explosions in Water-filled Cavities.- Application of Network-averaged Teleseismic P-wave Spectra to Seismic Yield Estimation of Underground Nuclear Explosions.- Effects of Source RDP Models and Near-source Propagation: Implication for Seismic Yield Estimation.- Yield Estimation for Semipalatinsk Underground Nuclear Explosions Using Seismic Surface-wave Observations at Near-regional Distances.- Yield Estimation from Surface-wave Amplitudes.- Teleseismic Lg of Semipalatinsk and Novaya Zemlya Nuclear Explosions Recorded by the GRF (Gräfenberg) Array: Comparison with Regional Lg (BRV) and their Potential for Accurate Yield Estimation.- Classical and Bayesian Seismic Yield Estimation: The 1998 Indian and Pakistani Tests.