Microscopic and Macroscopic Simulation: Towards Predictive Modelling of the Earthquake Process

Vol. 157, 2000 spanning across disciplines and national boundaries gives cause for optimism. New participation in ACES to extend its existing synergies is welcomed. We wish to thank the scientific participants of The APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation (ACES) and the contributors to this book. We express appreciation to the Australian, Chinese, Japanese and USA governments for supporting the establishment of ACES. We gratefully acknowledge funding support by the Australian government's Department of Industry, Science and Resources, The University of Queensland, Japan's Science and Technology Agency through its Research Organisation for Information Science and Technology, the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Science Foundation of China. We acknowledge with appreciation additional workshop sponsorship pro vided by SGI (Silicon Graphics). Special thanks to QUAKES team members (Tracy Paroz, David Place, Steffen Abe, Dion Weatherley and Steven Jaume) and Kim Olsen who provided assistance to the Editors. Peter Mora would also like to thank Evelyne Meier. REFERENCES I-st ACES Workshop Proceedings (1999), ed. Mora, P. (ACES, Brisbane, Australia, ISBN 1 86499 121 6), 554 pp. APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation: earth. uq. edu. au/ACES ACES Inaugural Workshop: earth. uq. edu. au/ACES_ WS Raul Madariaga Peter Mora QUAKES Laboratoire de Geologie Department of Earth Sciences Ecole Normale Superieur The University of Queensland 24 Rue Lhomond 4072 Brisbane, Qld F-75231 Paris, Cedex 05 Australia France mora@earth. up. edu. au madariag@geologie. ens.

Inhalt
Microscopic Simulation.- Numerical Simulation of Localisation Phenomena in a Fault Zone.- Shear Heating in Granular Layers.- Extension of the Lattice Solid Model to Incorporate Temperature Related Effects.- Hybrid Modelling of Coupled Pore Fluid-solid Deformation Problems.- Numerical Simulation of Rock Failure and Earthquake Process on Mesoscopic Scale.- Damage Localization as a Possible Precursor of Earthquake Rupture.- Evolution-induced Catastrophe and its Predictability.- Macroscopic Simulation: Short Time Scale Phenomena (Rupture and Strong Motion).- Dynamic Propagation and Interaction of a Rupture Front on a Planar Fault.- Criticality of Rupture Dynamics in 3-D.- Spontaneous Rupture Propagation on a Non-planar Fault in 3-D Elastic Medium.- Constraints on Stress and Friction from Dynamic Rupture Models of the 1994 Northridge, California, Earthquake.- Parallel 3-D Simulation of Ground Motion for the 1995 Kobe Earthquake: The Component Decomposition Approach.- Computer Simulation of Strong Ground Motion near a Fault Using Dynamic Fault Rupture Modeling: Spatial Distribution of the Peak Ground Velocity Vectors.- Numerical Simulation of Dynamic Process of the Tangshan Earthquake by a New MethodLDDA.- Nonlinear Structural Subsystem of GeoFEM for Fault Zone Analysis.- Macroscopic Simulation: Long Time Scale Phenomena (Earthquake Cycle).- 3-D Physical Modelling of Stress Accumulation Processes at Transcurrent Plate Boundaries.- The Edges of Large Earthquakes and the Epicenters of Future Earthquakes: Stress-induced Correlations in Elastodynamic Fault Models.- Precursory Seismic Activation and Critical-point Phenomena.- Evolution of Stress Deficit and Changing Rates of Seismicity in Cellular Automaton Models of Earthquake Faults.- Accelerating Seismic Energy Release andEvolution of Event Time and Size Statistics: Results from Two Heterogeneous Cellular Automaton Models.- The Plausibility of Long-wavelength Stress Correlation or Stress Magnitude as a Mechanism for Precursory Seismicity: Results from Two Simple Elastic Models.- Scaling, Data Assimilation and Forecasting.- Scale-dependence in Earthquake Processes and Seismogenic Structures.- A Physical Scaling Relation Between the Size of an Earthquake and its Nucleation Zone Size.- Regional Difference in Scaling Laws for Large Earthquakes and its Tectonic Implication.- Continuous GPS Array and Present-day Crustal Deformation of Japan.- Implications of a Statistical Physics Approach for Earthquake Hazard Assessment and Forecasting.- Application of Linked Stress Release Model to Historical Earthquake Data: Comparison between Two Kinds of Tectonic Seismicity.- Development of a New Approach to Earthquake Prediction: Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory.