Geopolitical Alpha

Autorentext

MARKO PAPIC is a geopolitical expert that translates geopolitical and macroeconomic trends into actionable investment implications through his GeoMacro framework detailed in his book "Geopolitical Alpha" - one of Bloomberg's Top Books of 2020.

He is the Chief Investment Strategist & Head of GeoMacro at the world's largest independent macro research shop. There he leads the firm's GeoMacro Platform, helping clients navigate geopolitical risks, macro dislocations, and thematic investment opportunities. He also oversees the firm's advisory and consulting arm providing custom research and strategic projects to clients.

Previously he was Partner and Chief Economist at an asset management firm where he advised some of the world's largest institutional investors, helped seed global macro hedge funds, and launched a green technology investment initiative. Earlier in his career, he was a Senior Analyst at Stratfor, a global intelligence firm.

Born in Belgrade, Serbia, he has lived across Europe, the Middle East, and North America, bringing a distinctly global perspective to his analysis. He is a frequent keynote speaker and commentator worldwide media, including CNN, Bloomberg and more. He also has lectured at leading universities including Stanford, Georgetown, Johns Hopkins SAIS, and the University of Toronto.

Klappentext

Forecast geopolitics and markets with this clear and insightful resource

Geopolitical Alpha - An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights.

Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses:

• What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade
• Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk
• How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns
  Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.

Inhalt

Foreword by Steven Drobny vii

Introduction xi

Part One SCAFFOLDING 1

Chapter 1 We're Not in Kansas Anymore 3

Chapter 2 The Constraint Framework: Three Pillars 19

Chapter 3 The Wizards of Oz 44

Part Two THE CONSTRAINTS 69

Chapter 4 Politics 71

Chapter 5 The Economy and the Market 103

Chapter 6 Geopolitics 142

Chapter 7 Constitutional and Legal Constraints: The Constraint-Preference Hybrids 161

Chapter 8 The Time Constraint: When Preferences RunDowntheClock 174

Part Three OPERATIONALIZATION 201

Chapter 9 The Art of the Net Assessment 203

Chapter 10 Game Theory - It's Not a Game! 235

Chapter 11 Geopolitical Alpha 245

Chapter 12 Conclusion 261

Acknowledgements 265

Bibliography 271

Index 279