This book, updated to cover the financial crisis 2008, analyzes real options valuation for non-constant versus constant interest rates using simulations and historical backtesting. The major change in this edition is the expanded number of tested scenarios.

After the ?rst edition of this book was published in early 2005, the world has changed dramatically and at a pace never seen before. The changes that - curred in 2008 and 2009 were completely unthinkable two years before. These changes took place not only in the Finance sector, the origin of the crisis, but also, as a result, in other economic sectors like the automotive sector. Governments now own substantial parts, if not majorities, in banks or other companies which recorded losses of double digit billions of USD in 2008. 2008 saw the collapse of leading stand-alone U. S. investment banks. In many co- tries interest rates fell close to zero. What has happend? While the economy showed strong growth in 2004 to 2006, the Subprime or Credit Crisis changed the picture completely. What started in the U. S. ho- ing market in late 2006 became a full-?edged global ?nancial crisis and has a?ected ?nancial markets around the world. A decline in U. S. house prices and increasing interest rates caused a higher rate of subprime mortgage delinqu- cies in the U. S. and, due to the wide distribution of securitized assets, had a negative e?ect on other markets. As a result, markets realized that risks had been underestimated and volatility increased. This development culminated in the bankruptcy of the investment bank Lehman Brothers in mid September 2008.

Systematic analysis based on simulation and historical background Necessary theory is provided New: covering the time period of the financial crisis 2008 Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

Autorentext

Marcus Schulmerich received his doctoral degree with Prof. Ulrich Hommel, Ph.D., Endowed Chair of Corporate Finance and Capital Markets at the ebs Business School in Wiesbaden, Germany. He is a Mathematician by training, focusing on Financial Engineering, and earned his MBA from the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management in Cambridge, MA / USA. Dr. Schulmerich works as a Product Specialist for quantitative equity and hedge fund strategies with State Street Global Advisors (SSgA) in Munich, Germany, covering the complete EMEA region (Europe, Middle East and Africa). He is a frequent guest lecturer at the ebs and other universities for courses in "Financial Engineering", "Risk Management" and "Derivatives" and publishes regularly on Finance and Asset Management in newspapers, magazines and books.

Klappentext
This book analyzes real options valuation for non-constant versus constant interest rates using simulations and historical backtesting. It provides a systematic analysis and compares real options valuation using constant interest rates and the implied forward rates with methods that simulate interest rates stochastically. Real options are investigated and combined with various pricing tools and stochastic term structure models. Interest rates for real options valuation are simulated by using stochastic term structure models (Vasicek, Cox-Ingersoll-Ross, Ho-Lee, and Hull-White one-factor and two-factor models) and by using implied forward rates. All necessary theory is provided in the book. The analyses were conducted using a proprietary computer simulation program. All results are explained in detail and rules are derived for application in Corporate Finance practice. The major change in this second edition is the expanded number of tested scenarios. The second edition contains an expanded number of tested scenarios covering the time period of the financial crisis 2008, one of the worst stock market crashes in history. The findings confirm the results provided in the first edition.

Inhalt
Real Options in Theory and Practice.- Stochastic Models for the Term Structure of Interest Rates.- Real Options Valuation Tools in Corporate Finance.- Analysis of Various Real Options in Simulations and Backtesting.- Summary and Outlook.