Worldwide health care problems are finding growing application in Operations Research. This monograph covers a range of modeling and methodological issues including environmental, experimental, simulation, and mathematical modeling approaches. The author is one of the leading research scholars in the field. His work on health risk modeling will be synthesized along with the work of others on modeling human health risks. The main goal is to provide and illustrate methods for quantitative risk assessment and for comparing alternative risk management actions, given realistic limitations on scientific knowledge and available data. Some of the steps covered are hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response modeling, and risk characterization, including uncertainty and sensitivity analyses.

A thorough analytical treatment and exposition of some of the main quantitative methods that can be used to assess the risk of human health consequences of using antibiotics in food animals. The 'probable human health consequences of withdrawing or restricting current animal antibiotic use' is the question which is applied to each chapter The major goal of this book is to provide and illustrate methods for quantitative risk assessment and for comparing alternative risk management actions, given realistic limitations on scientific knowledge and available data. Some of the steps covered are hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response modeling, and risk characterization, including uncertainty and sensitivity analyses

Autorentext

Tony Cox is Professor of Business Analytics at the University of Colorado and President of Cox Associates, a Denver-based applied research company specializing in health, safety, and environmental risk analysis; epidemiology; policy analytics; data science; artificial intelligence; and operations research. Dr. Cox is Editor-in-Chief of Risk Analysis: An International Journal. He is Area Editor for Real World Applications for the Journal of Heuristics, and is on the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Operations Research and Information Systems. He has authored and co-authored over 200 journal articles and book chapters on these fields. His most recent books are Causal Analytics for Risk Analysis (Springer, 2018), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis (Wiley, 2015), Improving Risk Analysis (Springer, 2013), and the Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science (Wiley, 2011), which Dr. Cox co-edited. He has over a dozen U.S. patents on applications of artificial intelligence, signal processing, statistics and operations research in telecommunications. His current research interests include computational statistical methods for causal inference in public health risk analysis, data-mining, and advanced analytics for risk management, business, and public policy applications.

Klappentext

"Antibiotic use in animals has aroused sharply polarised views and public anxiety about potential human health risks, stimulated by lack of any objective standard to help navigate among conflicting studies and perceptions. Tony Cox's Quantitative Health Risk Analysis Methods represents a giant leap forward, helping to provide such a standard. Notable improvements and increased scientific rigor in public health risk assessment and risk management can be expected from the insightful approaches lucidly described in this book. I will be recommending it enthusiastically to all students of public health." Stephen Page, University of Sydney Veterinary Public Health Management Program

"Tony Cox has been a true pioneer in this previously untouched niche area of applied risk assessment. This book should be highly instructive to those interested in attempting to model potential human health risks of antimicrobial resistance from complex food exposure pathways." Rich Carnevale, Animal Health Institute

Inhalt
Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Analysis.- Risk Analysis: Goals and Methods.- Hazard Identification.- Exposure Assessment.- Dose-Response Modeling and Risk Characterization.- Human Health Risks from Virginiamycin: A Case Study.- Dynamic Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis.- Potential Human Health Benefits of Animal Antibiotics.