This book provides a solution to rare event problems without using the classical theory of reliability and theory of probability. This solution is based on the methodology of risk assessment as measure of danger (in keeping with the ICS RAS) and an expert approach to determining systems' safety indications using Fuzzy Sets methods. Further, the book puts forward a new concept: Reliability, Risks, and Safety (RRS). The book's main goal is to generalize present results and underscore the need to develop an alternative approach to safety level assessment and risk management for technical (aviation) systems in terms of Fuzzy Sets objects, in addition to traditional probabilistic safety analysis (PSA). The concept it proposes incorporates ICAO recommendations regarding proactive system control and the system's responses to various internal and external disturbances.

Describes the application of a risk-oriented approach using Fuzzy Sets methods Puts forward principles of decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, especially concerning rare events Presents cognitive technologies that reduce the probability of emergency situations

Autorentext

Kuklev E.A., Professor, Doctor of Technical Sciences, was born in 1934; and graduated from the Kazan Aviation Institute (majoring in aircraft construction). He is an Honored Worker of the Higher School of Russia, Laureate of the commemorative medal of the Vietnamese People's Republic (2018) for his services in the preparation of scientific aviation personnel (candidates of Technical Sciences) and for the implementation of scientific and technical projects for civil aviation in Vietnam, Head of the Mechanics department of St. Petersburg State University, and Director of the Center for Expertise and Scientific Support of Projects in St. Petersburg State University. Earlier, he was the vice-rector for research in St. Petersburg State University of Civil Aviation. He is the author of more than 300 scientific papers and inventions in the aviation field, including those for development of air transport standards, with activity management standards for transportation of goods on the external load suspension of helicopters in the interaction of helicopter groups based on ICAO requirements.

Shapkin V.S., Professor, Doctor of Technical Sciences, graduated from Moscow Institute of Civil Aviation Engineers (1984). He is a Laureate of the Russian Federation Government Prize in Science and Technology, an Honored Transport Worker of the Russian Federation, and Director General of FSUE State Research Institute of Civil Aviation (FSUE GosNII GA). He is also an Expert of the Federal Air Transport Agency, Federal Service on supervision in the sphere of transport of the Russian Ministry of Transport, and the Interstate Aviation Committee. His area of specialisation includes air transport and aircraft strength. He is also the author of more than 200 scientific works.

Filippov V.L., Acting General Director of FSUE State Research Institute of Civil Aviation, Actual State Councillor of Russian Federation, graduated from Syzran Air Force Aviation School, Gagarin Air Force Academy. He is a specialist in aeronautical activity and a Class 1 military pilot.

Shatrakov Y.G., Professor, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Honored Science Worker of Russia, RATS full member, graduated from Leningrad Institute of Aviation Instrumentation and Leningrad University (Physics and Mathematics Faculty). He defended his thesis in 1966. He published more 400 monographs and textbooks on radio navigation, radiolocation, production organization. He prepared more than 100 candidates and doctors of science as a scientific adviser and scientific consultant. Scientific directions founded under the guidance of Y.G. Shatrakov are as follows: relative radio navigation; increased noise immunity of angle measuring systems due to suppression of correlation errors and interference; secondary radiolocation by individual numbers; reduction of labor intensity in the production of radio electronic products due to the introduction of flexible automated productions. He isthe author including 30 patents for inventions in the field of radio technical systems; scientific supervisor of international projects for the creation of the MLS with Thomson-CSF (19801988), with US enterprises for the creation of joint LRNSs (long-range radio technical navigation systems) (Tropic-Loran) (1984), chief designer of on-board antenna-feed systems; founder of the correlation interference theory in aviation radio technical complexes and systems.

Inhalt
Introduction.- Assessing the System Safety Using Reliability Theory and PSA Methods.- New Doctrine Reliability, Risk, Safety for System Safety (Flight Safety) Assessment on The Basis of the Fuzzy Sets Approach.- Solving the Rare Events Problem with the Fuzzy Sets Method.- Structure and Principles of Constructing the SMSs to Provide and Monitor System Safety Based on the RRS Risk Management Doctrine.- Algorithms and Methods for ATS Safety Monitoring and Assurance Using Methods for Calculating Risks in the RRS Doctrine.- Assessing Safety of Dual-Purpose Systems.- Conclusion.<p