Klappentext

An expertly crafted evaluation of forces shaping the economy over the coming decade and portfolio management strategies designed to harness them

In Coming Into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments, Vanguard's Global Chief Economist and head of its Investment Strategy Group, Joe Davis, makes a simple and profound argument: that the "status quo" view of the United States economy - one of predictable and relatively constant measures of growth, inflation, and financial returns - is actually deeply unlikely to hold true in the future. The book demonstrates how the promise of artificial intelligence and technological advancement may push against the daunting headwinds of slowing population growth, rising geopolitical tensions and growing national debt, to reshape the economy in ways that conventional thinking overlooks. Davis presents an innovative and original, data-driven framework to consider the probabilities of the coming tug-of-war between AI-fueled growth and inflationary structural fiscal deficits, that can help guide investors as they build investment portfolios to weather uncertain years ahead.

Inside the book:

• Effective strategies for investors attempting to prepare for different economic possibilities and scenarios in the world.
• New data and models to better quantify the impact of economic forces and uncover the risks of relying on consensus assumptions.
• Techniques to avoid common investment mistakes in times of economic change, such as doubling down on technology stocks, or avoiding certain types of investments.
• Guiding investing principles to help achieve greater financial returns, on a risk-adjusted basis.
  A must-read resource for professional and retail investors, Coming Into View is a startlingly insightful and practical guide for anyone seeking to engage with the financial markets as an informed and confident investor.

Inhalt

Preface: Skagway, Jack Bogle, and Megatrends vii

Chapter 1 Challenging My Own Assumptions 1

Chapter 2 AI AND Two SIMPLE TRUTHS 19

Chapter 3 The Fallacy of Globalization's Retreat 49

Chapter 4 Not Destiny, Just Demographics 71

Chapter 5 GOVERNMENT DEBT AND DEFICITS: One MATTERS MORE 85

Chapter 6 Megatrends Around the World 101

Chapter 7 THE TUG-OF-WAR: AI vs. FISCAL DEFICITS 115

Chapter 8 PREPARING FOR THE TUG-OF-WAR: PRINCIPLES vs. DOGMA 137

Chapter 9 A Victor's Portfolio, Act I: Divide and Conquer 151

Chapter 10 A Victor's Portfolio, Act II: Choose Wisely 173

Chapter 11 Conclusion 183

Appendix Framework Details for the Interested Reader 187

Acknowledgments 199

Index 203