Was the victory of François Hollande, the Socialist challenger to Nicolas Sarkozy, inevitable in the 2012 French Presidential elections? This book argues that a combination of economic downturn, policy choices and personal unpopularity meant that the Right-wing incumbent faced an almost impossible task in holding onto power for another five years.

"More than a book about elections, Evans and Ivaldi provide here a ranging and insightful analysis of party system dynamics, institutional factors, voting issues and policy debates as they shape electoral competition, and electoral choice, in France today. Through the lens of 2012, the book focuses on the presidential contest and its legislative sequel as critical for understanding wider aspects of the evolving institutional and political culture of the Fifth Republic. A timely and very valuable contribution to French political studies."

James Shields, Professor of French Politics and Modern History, Aston University, UK

"This book is a tour de force. The French elections of 2012 in their complexity are analysed here by Professors Evans and Ivaldi, and portray the intricacies of political competition, personal rivalry, public opinion. The social composition of the contending parties are explained concisely in their political and cultural context. The authors have depicted political France so convincingly 'that he who runs may read."

David Bell, Emeritus Professor of French Government and Politics, Department of Politics and International Studies, UK

"Using an innovative mixed methods approach, Evans and Ivaldi identify and evaluate, in a convincing manner, the structural and conjunctural factors that combined to explain why Hollande was elected President in May 2012 and why the parliamentary election confirmed this result a few weeks later. This is a substantial work."

Alistair Cole, Professor of European Politics, Cardiff School of European Languages, Translation and Politics, Cardiff University, UK

Autorentext

Jocelyn Evans is Professor of Politics at the University of Leeds, UK. He has published widely in the fields of French politics, European voting behaviour and the Extreme Right. Gilles Ivaldi is a Researcher in Political Science with the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) at the university of Nice, France. His main fields of research include French politics and the study of radical right parties in France and Europe.

Inhalt

1. Introduction 2. Knowns and unknowns: identifying the critical spaces of the 2012 elections 3. Party cooperation and conflict: actors' competitive positioning 4. Candidate selection processes and effects 5. Issues, policy debates and candidate valence 6. Campaign events 7. Polls and VP-functions: forecasting the elections 8. The legislative elections of June 2012 9. Conclusion