Plant Phenology as a Biomonitor for Climate Change in Germany

The investigations refer to the development of plant phenology since the 1960s in Germany. Spatiotemporal trends were assessed by means of regression kriging. It could be shown that there already is a distinct shift of phenological onset towards the beginning of the year of up to two weeks. In future, a shift of up to one month was calculated till 2080. Moreover, a prolongation of the vegetation period of up to three weeks was found. The findings are relevant for the development of mitigation measures to prevent from environmental, agricultural and economic issues due to climate change.

Offers a sophisticated risk assessment approach which links phenological and climatological measures Instructs how to apply geostatistical methods for mapping phenological data Explains how to use climate projections to map historical and future plant phenological development Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

Autorentext

Flavia Lanzara is an associate professor at the Department of Mathematics, University of Rome "La Sapienza" (Italy). Her main research interests are partial differential equations, potential theory, complex analysis, numerical analysis and their applications. Vladimir Maz’ya is a retired Swedish mathematician of worldwide reputation. The author of more than 500 publications, including 20 research monographs, he strongly influenced the development of mathematical analysis and the theory of partial differential equations, as well as the theory of mesoscale asymptotics and numerical analysis. Gunther Schmidt is a retired German mathematician from the Weierstrass Institute for Applied Analysis and Stochastics in Berlin. His main research interests have been approximation theory, theoretical and numerical analysis of integral equation and boundary element methods and their application to electromagnetics and optics.

Inhalt

1. Background and Goals.- Case Study 1: Phenological trends in Germany.- Case Study 2: Phenological trends in the federal state of Hesse.