Zusatztext "..this series has much to commend it..." (Modern Management! February 2002) Informationen zum Autor Multi-published author Cheryl Wright, former secretary, debt collector, account manager, writing instructor, and shopping tour hostess, loves reading.She writes historical and contemporary western romance, as well as small town romance and romantic suspense.She lives in a small village on the outskirts of Melbourne, Australia, and is married with two adult children and has six grandchildren. When she's not writing, she can be found in her craft room. Klappentext * Why are large organisations, including household names, sometimes accused of 'losing the plot' in their business strategy? * Why do organisations fail to exploit new opportunities such as that presented by Dyson's innovative vacuum cleaner design? * Why were funds poured into the UK Dome and the City of London Taurus computer project when it was clear that 'good money' was following 'bad'? The answers will surprise you. Using psychological theory, paper and pencil 'thought problems', and well-chosen quotations from newspaper articles written at the time, the book demonstrates and explains the causes of these 'strategic blunders'. It also shows how to recognise and avoid your own organisation making the same mistakes. Providing clear guidance with a number of tried and tested methods and techniques, the author shows how organisational decision making can be improved by avoiding delaying tactics and a 'blame culture' and how scenario planning can be used to overcome management overconfidence in predicting the future. Zusammenfassung Good decision making is crucial to good management and successful strategic planning. Sadly the decision making capabilities within organisations are often poor. Inhaltsverzeichnis Series Foreword by Digby Jones ix About the author xi Preface xiii Acknowledgements xv 1 Challenging Routines 1 Success formulas 3 Frames of reference 4 2 Decision Making in Management Teams 15 Groupthink 17 Alleviating groupthink 25 3 Overcoming Overconfidence 29 Overconfidence 30 Confirmation bias 32 Hindsight bias 33 Expert predictions 33 Alleviating overconfidence 39 4 How to Think with Scenarios 43 Scenario planning 44 Scenario construction: the extreme World method 45 Using scenarios in decision making 49 Scenario construction: the driving-forces method 55 The benefits of scenario planning 62 5 Dealing with Decision Dilemmas 73 Avoiding difficult decisions 74 Case study of a management team facing a decision dilemma 76 Dealing with psychological reactions to difficult decisions 80 6 Expectation and Decision Making 85 Decision trees 86 Blame culture and risk taking 93 7 How to Make Trade-offs 105 Simplifying choices can result in poor decisions 106 Making trade offs 113 8 Harnessing the Minds of Managers 121 Strategy development 122 A technique for the facilitation of strategic thinking 123 The role of the facilitator 124 Lessons from this book 126 Notes 131 Appendix A 137 Appendix B 138 Appendix C 139 Index 141 ...

"..this series has much to commend it..." (Modern Management, February 2002)

Autorentext

Multi-published author Cheryl Wright, former secretary, debt collector, account manager, writing instructor, and shopping tour hostess, loves reading.She writes historical and contemporary western romance, as well as small town romance and romantic suspense.She lives in a small village on the outskirts of Melbourne, Australia, and is married with two adult children and has six grandchildren. When she's not writing, she can be found in her craft room.

Klappentext

• Why are large organisations, including household names, sometimes accused of 'losing the plot' in their business strategy?

• Why do organisations fail to exploit new opportunities such as that presented by Dyson's innovative vacuum cleaner design?

• Why were funds poured into the UK Dome and the City of London Taurus computer project when it was clear that 'good money' was following 'bad'?
  The answers will surprise you. Using psychological theory, paper and pencil 'thought problems', and well-chosen quotations from newspaper articles written at the time, the book demonstrates and explains the causes of these 'strategic blunders'. It also shows how to recognise and avoid your own organisation making the same mistakes.

Providing clear guidance with a number of tried and tested methods and techniques, the author shows how organisational decision making can be improved by avoiding delaying tactics and a 'blame culture' and how scenario planning can be used to overcome management overconfidence in predicting the future.

Zusammenfassung
Good decision making is crucial to good management and successful strategic planning. Sadly the decision making capabilities within organisations are often poor.

Inhalt

Series Foreword by Digby Jones ix

About the author xi

Preface xiii

Acknowledgements xv

1 Challenging Routines 1

Success formulas 3

Frames of reference 4

2 Decision Making in Management Teams 15

Groupthink 17

Alleviating groupthink 25

3 Overcoming Overconfidence 29

Overconfidence 30

Confirmation bias 32

Hindsight bias 33

Expert predictions 33

Alleviating overconfidence 39

4 How to Think with Scenarios 43

Scenario planning 44

Scenario construction: the extreme World method 45

Using scenarios in decision making 49

Scenario construction: the driving-forces method 55

The benefits of scenario planning 62

5 Dealing with Decision Dilemmas 73

Avoiding difficult decisions 74

Case study of a management team facing a decision dilemma 76

Dealing with psychological reactions to difficult decisions 80

6 Expectation and Decision Making 85

Decision trees 86

Blame culture and risk taking 93

7 How to Make Trade-offs 105

Simplifying choices can result in poor decisions 106

Making trade offs 113

8 Harnessing the Minds of Managers 121

Strategy development 122

A technique for the facilitation of strategic thinking 123

The role of the facilitator 124

Lessons from this book 126

Notes 131

Appendix A 137

Appendix B 138

Appendix C 139

Index 141