The book develops a system of models and forecasts for the transformation process of former centrally planned economies into market economies. It outlines a simulation model for the united Germany showing the likely path of the "New Lands" integration into West Germany by the year 2000. It introduces the concept of a quarterly macroeconometric model aimed at forecasting and scenario analysis of stabilization and antirecession policies exemplified by a new model for Poland. The book contains information on new software ETAS generating models and SIMUL for efficient simulations. All the models and forecasts contain new annual data bases for Germany and quarterly data for the Polish economy. Therefore the book is also a source of statistical material.

It has been quite a challenge for econometricians to model economies in transition. There is no textbook at hand to master that task. Economic theory cannot be applied without adaptations to the characteristic change of a whole economic system. Regression analysis, taking into account past economic development only, is of limited use for the econometrician. Having econometric models at hand would be very helpful for an active economic policy to guide the transition process. Various scenarios representing strategies could be simulated in their consequences to the economy. The best alternative in respect to the government's objectives could be chosen. This very situation has born the idea of co-operation between L6dz and Frankfurt in 1990. There are problems of this kind in Poland and in Germany. The German situation is somewhat better than that of Poland as a relatively small centrally planned economy is being united with a substantial social market economy taking over a lot of the burden of the former mismanagement. Thus, it might be possible to share the experience in modelling the united Germany and preparing forecasts with the Polish model builders. In addition, it would be prOfitable for both model establishing teams to link their models in order to improve the forecasting potential. Moreover, the Polish partner has a broad national and international experience in econometric model building which makes co-operation smooth and fruitful. His experience in modelling countries with a centrally planned economy would also help to master the transition problems.

Inhalt

1. On the concept of a system of econometric forecasting and simulation models for the period of transition towards the market economies.- 1.1 Introduction.- 1.2 Towards a system of economic forecasts and policy simulations for the transition period.- 1.3 On a system of macro models.- 1.4 The system of economic forecasts and policy simulations.- 1.5 The numerical techniques.- 1.6 Further research plans.- References.- 1. Germany.- 2. The system of models.- 3. The basic simulation.- Appendices.- 2. Poland.- 4. Quarterly model WK-91 of the Polish economy in transition.- 5. Dynamic expectations in the quarterly model of the Polish economy.- 6. Data base for the quarterly model WK-91 of the Polish economy.- Appendices.