The book outlines the processes of calculating and critically reviewing construction costs and times for clients and contractors in different project phases. Any project or structural analysis should yield accurate information on times, costs, and prices. The related database is more or less uncertain depending on project complexity and the circumstances of work performance. It is thus recommended to use ranges of key input parameters. This approach consistently considers uncertainties within a holistic project view, thus enhancing the plausibility and validity of specific values. Only the integration of probabilistic methods will allow for calculating and graphically representing the chance/risk ratio as a crucial project variable ultimately influencing the entire business.

This book examines the systemic modeling and consideration of uncertainties when determining construction costs and times, and life-cycle costs. It contains detailed descriptions of other decision-makingprocesses, including project preparation and planning (developer calculation, soil survey, cost estimate), work preparation (costing, pricing, construction time evaluation, resource identification, comparison of construction methods, bid analysis, contract award), and project execution (site logistics, construction method selection, construction process planning, work coordination, sourcing, determination of additional costs, trend analyses), as well as for project portfolio management as a tool relevant to all phases.

Provides a practice-driven and easy-to-grasp introduction to probability theory Showcases best practice examples from project management and construction practice in which the described methods were applied successfully Highlights the benefit of the Monte Carlo simulation method in the context of analyzing the chance/risk ratio Provides theoretical foundations and hands-on examples helpful to project stakeholders as well as students

Autorentext

Prof. Christian Hofstadler is the Head of the Institute of Construction Management and Economics at Graz University of Technology (TU Graz) in Austria. In his role, he constantly strives to optimize the way in which knowledge is transferred on a sound and sustainable basis in university tuition and research to the benefit of the community of experts in both the private and the public sector. His endeavor has always been to generate and transfer networked knowledge and the associated know-why. His research findings are not only presented in tuition and research, they are also put to good use by construction practitioners in their daily work. Dr. Markus Kummer graduated from TU Graz, obtaining a master's degree in industrial engineering/construction engineering sciences. Since 2011 he has been working as an independent professional, preparing expert opinions in the field of construction management and economics. Since 2013he has also been university project assistant at TU Graz, followed by a senior project scientist position at the Institute of Construction Management and Economics. He is the deputy head of the working group on the "Management of Chances and Risks, and Digitization" and is a member of the Institute Board. He has authored several articles in the construction engineering sciences field as well as co-hosted scientific conferences.

Inhalt
Chapter 1: Introduction.- Chapter 2: Basics.- Chapter 3: Data, Information, Knowledge, and BIM.- Chapter 4: Management of Chances and Risks.- Chapter 5: Applying the Management of Chances and Risks to Project Phases.- Chapter 6: The Fundamentals of Monte Carlo Simulations.- Chapter 7: Application of Monte Carlo Simulations.- Chapter 8: Influence of Project Lead Time and Construction Time on Project Targets.- Chapter 9: Worked Examples Client.- Chapter 10: Worked Examples Contractor.