Informationen zum Autor CHARLES W. CHASE Jr. is the Chief Industry Consultant in SAS's Manufacturing & Supply Chain Global Practice, where he is the principal architect and strategist for delivering demand planning and forecasting solutions to improve SAS customers' supply chain efficiencies. He has more than twenty-six years of experience in the consumer packaged goods industry, and is an expert in sales forecasting, market response modeling, econometrics, and supply chain management. Klappentext An updated new edition of the comprehensive guide to better business forecastingMany companies still look at quantitative forecasting methods with suspicion, but a new awareness is emerging across many industries as more businesses and professionals recognize the value of integrating demand data (point-of-sale and syndicated scanner data) into the forecasting process. Demand-Driven Forecasting equips you with solutions that can sense, shape, and predict future demand using highly sophisticated methods and tools. From a review of the most basic forecasting methods to the most advanced and innovative techniques in use today, this guide explains demand-driven forecasting, offering a fundamental understanding of the quantitative methods used to sense, shape, and predict future demand within a structured process. Offering a complete overview of the latest business forecasting concepts and applications, this revised Second Edition of Demand-Driven Forecasting is the perfect guide for professionals who need to improve the accuracy of their sales forecasts.* Completely updated to include the very latest concepts and methods in forecasting* Includes real case studies and examples, actual data, and graphical displays and tables to illustrate how effective implementation works* Ideal for CEOs, CFOs, CMOs, vice presidents of supply chain, vice presidents of demand forecasting and planning, directors of demand forecasting and planning, supply chain managers, demand planning managers, marketing analysts, forecasting analysts, financial managers, and any other professional who produces or contributes to forecastsAccurate forecasting is vital to success in today's challenging business climate. Demand-Driven Forecasting offers proven and effective insight on making sure your forecasts are right on the money. Zusammenfassung From a review of basic forecasting methods to the advanced and innovative techniques in use today, this book offers a fundamental understanding of the quantitative methods used to sense, shape, and predict future demand within a structured process. It is suitable for professionals who need to improve the accuracy of their sales forecasts. Inhaltsverzeichnis Foreword xi Preface xv Acknowledgments xix About the Author xx Chapter 1 Demystifying Forecasting: Myths versus Reality 1 Data Collection, Storage, and Processing Reality 5 Art-of-Forecasting Myth 8 End-Cap Display Dilemma 10 Reality of Judgmental Overrides 11 Oven Cleaner Connection 13 More Is Not Necessarily Better 16 Reality of Unconstrained Forecasts, Constrained Forecasts, and Plans 17 Northeast Regional Sales Composite Forecast 21 Hold-and-Roll Myth 22 The Plan that Was Not Good Enough 23 Package to Order versus Make to Order 25 "Do You Want Fries with That?" 26 Summary 28 Notes 28 Chapter 2 What Is Demand-Driven Forecasting? 31 Transitioning from Traditional Demand Forecasting 33 What's Wrong with The Demand-Generation Picture? 34 Fundamental Flaw with Traditional Demand Generation 37 Relying Solely on a Supply-Driven Strategy Is Not the Solution 39 What Is Demand-Driven Forecasting? 40 What Is Demand Sensing and Shaping? 41 Changing the Demand Management Process Is Essential 57 Communication Is Key ...

Autorentext

CHARLES W. CHASE Jr. is the Chief Industry Consultant in SAS's Manufacturing & Supply Chain Global Practice, where he is the principal architect and strategist for delivering demand planning and forecasting solutions to improve SAS customers' supply chain efficiencies. He has more than twenty-six years of experience in the consumer packaged goods industry, and is an expert in sales forecasting, market response modeling, econometrics, and supply chain management.

Klappentext

An updated new edition of the comprehensive guide to better business forecasting Many companies still look at quantitative forecasting methods with suspicion, but a new awareness is emerging across many industries as more businesses and professionals recognize the value of integrating demand data (point-of-sale and syndicated scanner data) into the forecasting process. Demand-Driven Forecasting equips you with solutions that can sense, shape, and predict future demand using highly sophisticated methods and tools. From a review of the most basic forecasting methods to the most advanced and innovative techniques in use today, this guide explains demand-driven forecasting, offering a fundamental understanding of the quantitative methods used to sense, shape, and predict future demand within a structured process. Offering a complete overview of the latest business forecasting concepts and applications, this revised Second Edition of Demand-Driven Forecasting is the perfect guide for professionals who need to improve the accuracy of their sales forecasts. * Completely updated to include the very latest concepts and methods in forecasting * Includes real case studies and examples, actual data, and graphical displays and tables to illustrate how effective implementation works * Ideal for CEOs, CFOs, CMOs, vice presidents of supply chain, vice presidents of demand forecasting and planning, directors of demand forecasting and planning, supply chain managers, demand planning managers, marketing analysts, forecasting analysts, financial managers, and any other professional who produces or contributes to forecasts Accurate forecasting is vital to success in today's challenging business climate. Demand-Driven Forecasting offers proven and effective insight on making sure your forecasts are right on the money.

Zusammenfassung
From a review of basic forecasting methods to the advanced and innovative techniques in use today, this book offers a fundamental understanding of the quantitative methods used to sense, shape, and predict future demand within a structured process. It is suitable for professionals who need to improve the accuracy of their sales forecasts.

Inhalt

Foreword xi

Preface xv

Acknowledgments xix

About the Author xx

Chapter 1 Demystifying Forecasting: Myths versus Reality 1

Data Collection, Storage, and Processing Reality 5

Art-of-Forecasting Myth 8

End-Cap Display Dilemma 10

Reality of Judgmental Overrides 11

Oven Cleaner Connection 13

More Is Not Necessarily Better 16

Reality of Unconstrained Forecasts, Constrained Forecasts, and Plans 17

Northeast Regional Sales Composite Forecast 21

Hold-and-Roll Myth 22

The Plan that Was Not Good Enough 23

Package to Order versus Make to Order 25

"Do You Want Fries with That?" 26

Summary 28

Notes 28

Chapter 2 What Is Demand-Driven Forecasting? 31

Transitioning from Traditional Demand Forecasting 33

What's Wrong with The Demand-Generation Picture? 34

Fundamental Flaw with Traditional Demand Generation 37

Relying Solely on a Supply-Driven Strategy Is Not the Solution 39

What Is Demand-Driven Forecasting? 40

What Is Demand Sensing and Shaping? 41

Changing the Demand Management Process Is Essential 57

Communication Is Key 65

Measuring Demand Management Success 67

Benefits of a Demand-Driven Forecasting Process 68

Key Steps to Improve the Demand Management Process 70

Why Haven't Companies Embraced the Concept of Demand-Driven? 71

Summary 74

Notes 75

Chapter 3 Overview of Forecasting Methods 77

Underlying Methodology 79

Different Categories of Methods 83

How Predictable Is the Future? 88

Some Causes of Forecast Error 91

Segmenting Your P…