This book covers available approaches to improving the performance and impact of long-term projections of the national energy sector development. In turn, it introduces an original multi-stage approach to narrowing down the uncertainty range of the input data and resulting projections. Its unique contribution is that it limits the scope for each of the projection timeframe segments step-by-step. This is done in the course of iterative calculations, which employ dedicated methods and other tools to elucidate and solve top-priority problems specific to each time segment. In closing, the book provides a detailed treatment of two essential research problems: 1) long-term forecasting for regional energy markets, and 2) the quantitative assessment of a) the barriers that are likely to hinder energy sector development and b) strategic-level energy security threats.

Autorentext

Yuri D. Kononov Doctor of Economics, Professor, Meritorious Scientist of the Russian Federation, Chief Researcher at the Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia. His fields of research are modeling of energy and economy interactions as well as the methods aimed at enhancing the validity of long-term projections of the energy industry development. He has 254 research publications to his credit (including the authorship and co-authorship of 16 research monographs).

Inhalt

RUSSIAN EDITION EDITOR'S PREFACE

INTRODUCTION

Chapter 1. THE EFFECT OF THE FORECASTING TIME FRAME ON FORECAST PERFORMANCE AND FORECAST PERFORMANCE REQUIREMENTS

1.1. Correlation between the accuracy of input data / required data and the forecasting time frame

1.2. Estimating the acceptable forecast error

1.3. Available means for narrowing down the uncertainty range of projections

1.4. The evolution undergone by uncertainty handling formalisms as employed in forecasting

Chapter 2. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LONG-TERM FORECASTING METHODOLOGY FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR

2.1. The evolution undergone by the energy systems development models and their applications

2.2. On the correspondence between forecasting methods and the time frame

2.3. A new multi-stage approach to long-term energy sector forecasting

2.4. Structural analysis of the projection range

Chapter 3. METHODS OF PROJECTING PRICE AND DEMAND FOR ENERGY COMMODITIES

3.1. The evolution undergone by methods of energy consumption projections

3.2. Long-term projections of the probable price range for fuels

3.3. Methods and results of quantitative assessment of price elasticity of demand for energy commodities

3.4. Multi-stage projections of price and demand on regional energy markets

Chapter 4. ASSESSMENT AND FACTORING IN OF CONDITIONS AND BARRIERS THAT LIMIT THE PROJECTION RANGE OF THE PROSPECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ENERGY SECTOR

4.1. Taxonomy of constraints and barriers of the energy sector development

4.2. Inertia-induced barriers of the energy sector development

4.3. Methods and results of the study of temporal barriers and inertia of energy systems

4.4. Approaches to the evaluation of investment barriers in projections of the energy sector development

4.4.1. Methods of assessing investment project risks

4.4.2. Approaches to risk and economic performance valuation for options of prospective development of energy companies and the energy sector industries

Chapter 5. QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF STRATEGIC THREATS AND ENERGY SECURITY INDICATORS

5.1. Overview of energy security threats and indicators

5.2. Methods to solve the problem of the quantitative assessment of the capacity deficit threat

5.3. The assessment of the price growth rate for energy commodities that proves unacceptable for the national security

CONCLUSION

REFERENCES