Based on many years of applied research, modeling and educating future decision makers, the authors have selected the critical set of mathematical modeling skills for decision analysis to include in this book. The book focuses on the model formulation and modeling building skills, as well as the technology to support decision analysis. The authors cover many of the main techniques that have been incorporated into their three-course sequence in mathematical modeling for decision making in the Department of Defense Analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School. The primary objective of this book is illustrative in nature. It begins with an introduction to mathematical modeling and a process for formally thinking about difficult problems, illustrating many scenarios and illustrative examples. The book incorporates the necessary mathematical foundations for solving these problems with military applications and related military processes to reinforce the applied nature of themathematical modeling process.

Autorentext

William P. Fox is currently a professor in the department of mathematics at the College of William and Mary and is also Professor Emeritus in the Department of Defense Analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA. He earned his Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering/Operations Research at Clemson University, and his M.S. in Operations Research and Systems Analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School. He is responsible for coordination of a three-course sequence in Mathematical Modeling for Decision Making. His research interests include mathematical education; STEM education; quantitative decision theory; multi-attribute decision making and sensitivity analysis; and applications of game theory. He is the author of many textbooks and journal articles. Robert Burks is an Associate Professor and Director, Wargaming Activity Hub in the Department of Defense Analysis, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA. He earned his Ph.D. in Operations Research at the Air Force Institute of Technology and his M.S. in Operations Research at the Florida Institute of Technology. He currently teaches courses in Modeling for Military Decision Making, Irregular Warfare Modeling, and Wargaming. His research interests include Agent-Based Modeling, Information Operations modeling, Wargaming, and Combat Modeling.

Inhalt

Chapter 1: Mathematical Modeling and Operations Research for Military Decision Making.- Chapter 2: Statistics, Probability, and Model Fitting.- Chapter 3 Model Fitting with Regression.- Chapter 4: Mathematical Programming (Optimization).- Chapter 5: Decision Analysis using Multi-attribute Decision Making.- Chapter 6: Game Theory Models.- Chapter 7: Modeling Change with Dynamical Systems Models and Differential Equations.- Chapter 8: Monte Carlo Simulation & Agent Based Models.- Chapter 9 Supply Chain Network Logistics.