89 TABLE 5 USE OR PLANNED USE OF MAJOR ENGINES IN AIR FORCE AND NAVY AIRCRAFT a Engine Air Force Aircraft Navy Aircraft F-80, T-33, XF-92, YB-61, AJ2, F9F-7, TV-I, J-33 YB-62, F-94 (A, B), TM- T2-V, P4M-I 61 ( tactical missile) X-3, XF-88 F3D, F2H, F6U, F7U J-34 F-84 (B, C, D, E, G, H) J-35 FJ-I B-45, XB-51, XF-9J, B-36, J-47 B-47, F-86 (D, F, K) J-48 F-94C F9F J-57 B-52, YB-60, F-lOO, A3D, F4D, F8U F-I02A, F-I0l (A, B), SNARK, F-105A, F-I07, KC-135A, B-57D, X-16 F-84F, B-57 FIIF, A4D, FJ-3, J-65 FJ-4, F9F YQ-l, YQ-2, T-37 J-69 SNARK, YF-89E, B-66 J-71 F-I01, F-I02B, F-I05, J-75 F-I07 F8U, XP6M B-58, F-I04, F-IOIA (see J-79 note c, Table 4) F5D, FIIF, A3J, F4H T-34 C-133A, YC-97J, YC-12IF R7V-2 XF-84H T-40 R3Y,XFY,A2D YC-130, YC-131C T-56 Note: a Aircraft in which engine was used or was planned to be used. For at least one (and generally more) of the aircraft in the list associated with a given engine, the decision to use the engine was made when the engine was in the final stages of develop­ ment. (In the case of the J -57, J-79, andJ-75 this is true of nearly all the aircraft listed. ) No Jist extends beyond 1956. Summary For an engine developed independently of an airframe the de­ veloper may constrain the performance, weight, and size of an engine at the start.

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1. The Microeconomic Study of Development.- The Nature of the Studies.- The Microeconomic Study of Development and its Relation to Broader Economic Issues.- The Management of Government-financed R&D.- The Market Allocation of Resources to R&D.- R&D, Technical Change, and Economic Growth.- 2. Issues in the Choice of Development Policies.- A. What Is Development?.- B. The Structure of a Development: Uncertainty Reducing and Routine Tasks.- C. The Nature of Internal Uncertainties in Development.- D. The Resolution of Uncertainty.- E. The Elements of Development Policy.- F. The Component State of the Art Advance.- G. Component Interrelatedness.- H. The Use of Parallel Developments.- I. Distribution of Effort Among Uncertainty Reducing Tasks.- J. The Impact of Available Time and Resources upon Development Strategies.- K. External Uncertainties.- L. The Relation of Development Strategies to External Uncertainties.- M. Conclusion.- 3. The Role of Project Histories in the Study of R&D.- A. Introduction.- B. Airborne Radars.- "Side-looking" Radar.- World War II Radars.- Some Postwar Radars.- Interpretation.- C. Aircraft Engines.- The Nature of Engine Development: An Illustrative Model.- Issues to Be Examined in the Engine Histories.- The J-79.- The J-57 and J-75.- The J-40.- Some Shorter Histories: J-46, J-33, J-35, T-35.- Tabular Summaries of Uncertainties in the Engine Projects Studied.- Summary.- D. Fighter Aircraft.- The F-100.- The F-102.- The F-104.- E. Two Postwar Strategic Jet Bomber Programs.- The B-52.- The B-47.- F. The Sidewinder Missile.- Development History.- G. Conclusions.- 4. Cost Estimates as Predictors of Actual Costs: A Statistical Study of Military Developments.- A. Introduction and Summary.- Aims and Scope of the Study.- Outline of Methods and Results.- B. An Analysis of Cost-estimate Chronologies.- Errors in Nonmilitary Cost Estimating.- Model of the Development Process (I).- Preliminary Description of the Data.- Raw Measure of Accuracy of Estimates: Raw F.- Adjusted Measure of Accuracy of Estimates: F.- Model of the Development Process (II); First Variable: Timing Within the Development Program.- Second Variable: Technological Advance.- Bivariate Analysis of t and A.- Third Variable: Length of Development Period.- Fourth Variable: Calendar Date.- Regression Results: Algebraic.- Hypothesis Testing.- Regression Results: Graphic.- Fifth Variable: Missiles Versus Aircraft; Sixth Variable: Quantity Adjustment.- Seventh Variable: Estimator and/or Contractor.- Eighth Variable: Benchmark Time.- Data Problem: Errors in Measurement.- Data Problem: Randomness.- Estimation of Independent Variables; Weighting Observations.- Cost Changes of Major Article Components.- The "Changing-configuration" Hypothesis.- Conscious Underbidding of Contractors?.- C. The Consequences of Cost-estimate Inaccuracies.- Cost Inaccuracies Versus Other Uncertainties.- System Choice and Inaccurate Cost Estimates: Bias.- System Choice and Inaccurate Cost Estimates: Variance.- Implications for Cost-effectiveness Studies.- Implications for Force-structure Projections.- 5. Toward a Normative Theory of Development.- A. Introduction.- B. Normative Problems in Development Strategy.- 1. The Framework.- 2. The Developer's Task Under Certainty.- 3. The Developer's Task Under Uncertainty.- 4. The Pure Parallel Approach Problem with One or More Review Points.- 5. The Parallel Approach Problem with Sequential Selection of Approaches at Each Review Point.- 6, The Pursuit of Approaches with Different Intensities.- 7. Multi-component Problems.- 8. Further Refinements for the Case of Two Valued Preferences.- 9. Many Valued Preferences.- 10. Changes in the World Outside the Developer's Control.- 11. Project Selection Problems.- 12. Previously Explored Sequential Decision Problems Related to the Parallel Approach Problem.- 13. Limitations of Problems Based on the Approach Concept.- C. Normative Problems in Development Organization.- 1. General Normative Models of Organizations.- 2. Normative Models of the Development Project.- Appendix: Proof of Theorem 4 of Chapter 5.