The author presents the theory of portfolio choice from a new perspective, recommending decision rules that have advantages over those currently used in theory and practice. Portfolio choice theory relies on expected values. Goodall argues that this dependence has a historical basis and argues that current decision rules are inadequate for most portfolio choice situations. Drawing on econometric solutions proposed for the problem of forecasting outcomes of a chance experiment, the author defines adequacy criteria, and proposes adequate decision rules for a variety of situations. Goodall's theory combines the problems of prediction and choice, and formulates solutions based on cost functions that fit the underlying decision situation.

Autorentext

THILO GOODALL holds a PhD from the University of Freiburg (Germany) and is currently with SAM Sustainable Asset Management in Switzerland.

Inhalt

Introduction Risk and decision Analysis of prominent decision rules Adequate decision rules for portfolio choice Conclusion