Project Selection Under Uncertainty is the result of a five-year research program on the selection of projects in New Product Development (NPD). Choosing the New Product Development portfolio is of critical importance in today's business environment. The NPD portfolio has considerable strategic effect on the "middle term" success of a business.
This book takes a step in developing a theory that addresses the need for quantitative prioritization criteria within the broader strategic context of the R&D portfolios. Its foundation lies in mathematical theory of resource-constrained optimization with the goal to maximize quantitative returns. The book seeks to broaden the portfolio discussion in two ways. First, simplified models - appropriate for the data-poor NPD context - are developed, which attempt to illuminate the structure of the choice problem and robust qualitative rules of thumb, rather than detailed algorithmic decision support. Such robust rules can be applied in the R&D environment of poor data availability. Second, the annual portfolio review is not the only important choice in resource allocation. In addition, the book discusses how ideas might be pre-screened as they emerge, and how projects should be prioritized once they are funded and ongoing.

Inhalt

List of Figures. Preface. Acknowledgements. 1: Introduction to the portfolio selection problem. 1. Introduction. 2. Portfolio selection: a complex task. 3. Research questions and overview of this book. 2: What has been done so far? 1. Introduction. 2. Operational decisions. 3. Strategic decisions. 4. Strategic alignment of R&D: an example. 5. Implications for this book. 3: Dynamic selection of NPD programs. 1. Introduction. 2. Model setup. 3. Increasing returns. 4. Decreasing returns. 5. Decreasing returns and market interactions. 6. Decreasing returns and risk aversion. 7. Numerical example. 8. n Product lines and T Periods. 9. Discussion and conclusion. 4: Applying project selection at GemStone. 1. Introduction. 2. The diamond producer GemStone Inc. 3. Selecting the portfolio at GemStone. 4. Discussion and conclusion. 5: Admitting projects one-by-one. 1. Introduction. 2. Model setup. 3. Optimal policy. 4. Discussion and conclusion. 6: Prioritizing ongoing projects. 1. Introduction. 2. Model and optimal sequencing policy. 3. Discussion and examples. 4. Conclusion. 7: What have we learned? References. About the Authors. Index.