Trading Systems and Methods

The new edition of the definitive reference to trading systems--expanded and thoroughly updated.

Professional and individual traders haverelied on Trading Systems and Methods for over three decades. Acclaimed trading systems expert Perry Kaufman provides complete, authoritative information on proven indicators, programs, systems, and algorithms. Now in its sixth edition, this respected book continues to provide readers with the knowledge required to develop or select the trading programs best suited for their needs. In-depth discussions of basic mathematical and statistical concepts instruct readers on how much data to use, how to create an index, how to determine probabilities, and how best to test your ideas. These technical tools and indicators help readers identify trends, momentum, and patterns, while an analytical framework enables comparisons of systematic methods and techniques.

This updated, fully-revised edition offers new examples using stocks, ETFs and futures, and provides expanded coverage of arbitrage, high frequency trading, and sophisticated risk management models. More programs and strategies have been added, such as Artificial Intelligence techniques and Game Theory approaches to trading. Offering a complete array of practical, user-ready tools, this invaluable resource:

• Offers comprehensive revisions and additional mathematical and statistical tools, trading systems, and examples of current market situations

• Explains basic mathematical and statistical concepts with accompanying code

• Includes new Excel spreadsheets with genetic algorithms, TradeStation code, MetaStock code, and more

• Provides access to a companion website packed with supplemental materials

Trading Systems and Methods is an indispensable reference on trading systems, as well as system design and methods for professional and individual active traders, money managers, trading systems developers.

Autorentext

PERRY J. KAUFMAN is a financial engineer, well-known for developing algorithmic strategies for the global equity and futures markets. Mr. Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods has been called "the most authoritative and comprehensive work" in the field. He is also author of A Guide to Creating a Successful Algorithmic Trading Strategy (Wiley). Mr. Kaufman also co-founded the Journal of Futures Markets.

Klappentext
"If I could only have one book on the markets in my library, this would be it. Perry Kaufman is at the top of my pedestal for his innovative research and market expertise. This new edition is one of the most relevant works out there." Linda Raschke, President of LBRGroup, Author of Trading Sardines: Lessons in the Markets by a Lifelong Trader "It has been more than 30 years since we first discovered the 1st edition. Since then, our readers have enjoying and benefited from each new edition and are always impressed with easy-to-understand explanation of the important and universal contents about trading systems. We strongly recommend this book for our members and Japanese investors." Kakuya Kojoh, Chairman & Akihiro Niimi, Vice Chairman, The Nippon Technical Analysts Association "Perry has done it again! This Sixth Edition has been thoroughly updated to make it the most comprehensive resource covering technical analysis available anywhere. It should be on the bookshelf of every trader, from beginner to professional." John F. Ehlers, President, MESA Software "Perry's book is key in helping to answer the age old question of when to buy and when to sell. A must read for anyone who invests." Michael Pallitto, Financial Advisor THE BESTSELLNG GUIDE TO TRADING As markets inevitably evolve, so must the strategies and tools used to trade them. No one understands this more than Perry Kaufmanone of today's most respected market experts. For more than 30 years, traders have turned to Kaufman's classic Trading Systems and Methods for complete information about the latest, most successful indicators, programs, algorithms, and systems. Now, in this revised Sixth Edition, Kaufman thoroughly updates his bestselling guideadding new systems, new techniques, and many international examplesand shows you the best ways to trade today's futures and equities markets. The companion website, which contains TradeStation programs, Metastock programs, and Excel spreadsheets, allow you to test both the systems presented in the book and your own variation of these trading strategies. With everything from basic information on statistical analysis to advanced guidance on implementing algorithms and other tech trading solutions, this is an excellent, comprehensive resource for current and aspiring market professionals.

Zusammenfassung
The new edition of the definitive reference to trading systemsexpanded and thoroughly updated.

Professional and individual traders haverelied on Trading Systems and Methods for over three decades. Acclaimed trading systems expert Perry Kaufman provides complete, authoritative information on proven indicators, programs, systems, and algorithms. Now in its sixth edition, this respected book continues to provide readers with the knowledge required to develop or select the trading programs best suited for their needs. In-depth discussions of basic mathematical and statistical concepts instruct readers on how much data to use, how to create an index, how to determine probabilities, and how best to test your ideas. These technical tools and indicators help readers identify trends, momentum, and patterns, while an analytical framework enables comparisons of systematic methods and techniques.

This updated, fully-revised edition offers new examples using stocks, ETFs and futures, and provides expanded coverage of arbitrage, high frequency trading, and sophisticated risk management models. More programs and strategies have been added, such as Artificial Intelligence techniques and Game Theory approaches to trading. Offering a complete array of practical, user-ready tools, this invaluable resource:

• Offers comprehensive revisions and additional mathematical and statistical tools, trading systems, and examples of current market situations
• Explains basic mathematical and statistical concepts with accompanying code
• Includes new Excel spreadsheets with genetic algorithms, TradeStation code, MetaStock code, and more
• Provides access to a companion website packed with supplemental materials
  Trading Systems and Methods is an indispensable reference on trading systems, as well as system design and methods for professional and individual active traders, money managers, trading systems developers.

Inhalt

Preface xv

Chapter 1 Introduction 1

The Expanding Role of Technical Analysis 1

Convergence of Trading Styles in Stocks and Futures 3

Professional and Amateur 5

Random Walk 6

Deciding on a Trading Style 7

Measuring Noise 9

Maturing Markets and Globalization 12

Background Material 14

System Development Guidelines 15

Objectives of This Book 16

Profile of a Trading System 17

A Word about the Notation Used in This Book 20

A Final Comment 20

Chapter 2 Basic Concepts and Calculations 21

A Brief Word About Data 22

Simple Measures of Error 23

On Average 24

Price Distribution 28

Moments of the Distribution: Mean, Variance, Skewness, and Kurtosis 32

Choosing Between Frequency Distribution and Standard Deviation 37

Measuring Similarity 38

Standardizing Risk and Return 40

The Index 45

An Overview of Probability 50

Supply and Demand 56

Chapter 3 Charting 67

Finding Consistent Patterns 68

What Causes the Major Price Moves and Trends? 70

The Bar Chart and Its Interpretation by Charles Dow 71

Chart Formations 80

Trendlines 81

One-Day Patterns 89

Continuation Patterns 101

Basic Concepts in Chart Trading 105 …