From the preface by Joel E. Cohen: "A century from now humanity will live in a managed - or mismanaged - global garden. We are debating the need to preserve tropical forests. Farming of the sea is providing an increasing part of our fish supply. We are beginning to control atmospheric emissions. In 100 years, we shall use novel farming practices and genetic engineering of bacteria to manipulate the methane production of rice fields. The continental shelf will be providing food, energy, possibly even living space. To make such intensive management possible will require massive improvements in data collection and analysis, and especially in our concepts. A century hence we will live on a wired earth: the oceans and the crust of the earth will receive the same comprehensive monitoring now devoted to weather. As the peoples of currently developing countries increase their levels of wealth, the need for global management will become irresistible as impatience with the accidents of nature and intolerance of mismanagement of the environment - especially of living resources - grow. Our control of physical perturbations and chemical inputs to the environment will be judged by the consequences to living organisms and biological communities. How can we obtain the factual and theoretical foundation needed to move from our present, fragmented knowledge and limited abilities to a managed, global garden?" This problem was addressed in the lectures and workshops of a summer school on patch dynamics at Cornell University. The school emphasized the analysis and interpretation of spatial patterns in terrestrial and marine environments. This book contains the course material of this school, combining general reviews with specific applications.

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Comparing Terrestrial and Marine Ecological Systems.- Summary.- Present Status.- Major Themes.- Why are marine and terrestrial ecology different? Dimensions for comparisons Common issues.- Present Programs.- Options for Action.- Long-term data sets.- Body size, trophic structure, and community dynamics Methods of analysis of community structure Experimental manipulation of ecosystems Disturbance.- Origin and maintenance of diversity Patch dynamics Boundary-layer communities Scaling up and scaling down.- Mechanisms for Action.- II. Methods and Descriptions Overview (Powell).- 1. Introduction to Spatial Statistics.- Spatial Data.- Spatial Heterogeneity versus Spatial Dependence.- Two models of spatial heterogeneity A general model of spatial autocorrelation.- Some Measures of Spatial Autocorrelation.- Join-count statistics.- Moran's I and Geary's c.- Hypothesis testing.- Boundary effects.- Stationarity.- Regionalized variables.- Correlograms and Variograms.- Spatial Effects in Inferential Statistics.- Software for spatial Analysis.- References.- 2. The Spatial Nature of Soil Variability and Its Implications for Field Studies.- Soil-Forming Factors and Their Spatial Nature.- Geostatistical Assumptions.- Semivariograms and Autocorrelograms.- Kriging and Co-Kriging.- Stationarity, Trends and Anisotropy.- Sampling Strategies.- Conclusion.- References.- 3. Phytoplankton Patchiness: Ecological Implications and Observation Methods.- An Example from the Southern Ocean.- Variability as a Resource.- The Fluid Environment.- Scales of variability.- Physiological scale processes.- Observation Methods.- Conclusions.- Acknowledgments.- References.- 4. Measuring the Fate of Patches in the Water: Larval Dispersal.- Importance of the Dynamics of Patches in the Water Column to Benthic Organisms.- Technique for Measuring Mixing and Movement of a Patch of Water.- Examples of Measurements of Water Transport at Wave-Swept Rocky Shores.- Models of the Dynamics of Patches of Larvae.- Conclusion.- Acknowledgments.- References.- 5. Determining Process Through Pattern: Reality or Fantasy?.- Motivation.- Approach.- Conclusion.- Acknowledgments.- References.- 6. Description and Analysis of Spatial Patterns.- Patches and Patchiness.- Description of a "patch:" The terrestrial concept.- Patchiness: The marine concept.- Sampling.- Analysis Technique, Data Sets, and Examples.- Analyses of time-series and spatial series data: The autocorrelation function and the spectral density function.- Wavelet analysis.- Multivariate methods.- Empirical orthogonal functions.- Fractal geometry: Applications in analysis and description of patch patterns and patch dynamics.- Discussion.- Acknowledgments.- References.- III. Concepts and Models Overview (Steele).- 7. Ecological Interactions in Patchy Environments: From Patch-Occupancy Models to Cellular Automata.- Cellular Automata.- CA models and reaction-diffusion models.- CA models and patch-occupancy models.- From ecological interactions to CA models.- CA and Patch-Occupancy Models Compared.- Results.- Extensions of the Basic CA Model.- Disturbance size distributions.- Substrate heterogeneity.- Conclusions.- Acknowledgments.- References.- 8. Spatial Aggregation Arising from Convective Processes.- Thermal Convection: Mechanism and Scales III.- Langmuir Circulation: Mechanism and Scales.- Spatial Aggregation.- A diffusion model for transport across a trapping zone boundary.- The effects of small diffusivity.- Conclusions.- Acknowledgments.- References.- 9. Two-Patch Metapopulation Dynamics.- A Single Patch and Its Environment.- Two-Patch Models.- A simple two-patch model.- Density-independent migration rates.- Density-dependent migration rates.- Correlations Between Fluctuations on Two Patches.- Discussion.- Acknowledgments.- References.- Appendix 1: Stability Analysis for a One-Patch Model.- Appendix 2: Inter-Patch Phase Differences.- 10. Coupling of Circulation and Marine Ecosystem Models.- Historical perspective.- Construction of circulation fields.- Lagrangian Models.- Model equations.- Passive particles.- Particles with behavior.- Eulerian Models.- Model equations.- Reduced two-dimensional models.- Three-dimensional models.- Ocean Color Measurements.- Parameter studies.- Model verification.- Model upgrades.- Summary.- Acknowledgments.- References.- 11. An Invitation to Structured (Meta) Population Models.- Invasion in a Constant Environment.- The definition of R0.- Computational aspects.- Submodels for B.- The asymptotic speed of propagation.- Operationalization of R0: Some examples.- Variable Environments (and Nonlinearity by Feedback Through the Environment).- Energy budget models.- Metapopulation Models.- Local populations considered as individuals.- Deriving the population balance laws.- Some limiting cases.- Acknowledgments.- References.- 12. Stochastic Models of Growth and Competition.- The Stochastic Ising Model.- The Basic Contact Process.- Multitype Contact Processes.- Successional Dynamics.- An Epidemic Model.- References.- 13. Mechanisms of Patch Formation.- Scale.- Relative scales.- Resolving small-scale spatial patterns and processes from large-scale patterns:.- Grid-based computer simulations.- Multiscale patterns: Modeling and empirical data on krill aggregations.- Patch Formation as a Result of the Coupling of Different Mechanisms.- Diffusion-induced chaos or quasiperiodicity in a spatial predator-prey system.- Dispersal of a Predator and Its Prey in a Two-Dimensional Spatial Grid.- Concluding Remarks.- Acknowledgments.- References.- IV. Ecological and Evolutionary Consequences Overview (Levin).- 14. The Ocean Carbon Cycle and Climate Change: An Analysis of Interconnected Scales.- The Ocean's Role in Climate Change.- TTie Ocean Is in Motions, At All Scales.- Pathways for Removal of Carbon from the Surface Ocean.- The Role of the "Biological Pump" in Climate Change.- Acknowledgments.- References.- 15. Shifting Mosaic Metapopulation Dynamics.- Lxx:al Dynamics.- Growth, thinning, and gap formation.- Other stand characteristics.- Metapopulation Dynamics.- Life history and demography.- Population structure.- Numerical results.- Future Directions.- Acknowledgments.- References.- 16. Modeling Fi…