This monograph is concerned with the formulation and implementation of ORANI-INT, an intertemporal Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Australian economy. The aim is to bring together, in a balanced approach, theory and data for the purpose of developing a practical state-of-the-art tool for policy analysis. The modelling approach adopted is motivated by the recent trend in economy-wide modelling to combine the respective strengths of traditional CGE models and modern macroeconomic models. Traditional CGE models typically provide a dissagregate representation of the economy at a single point in time. Such models are useful for analysing issues involving the allocation of resources among the various agents identified at a particular point in time. Modern macroeconomic models, on the other hand, usually provide an aggregate representation of the economy over many points in time. Such models are useful for analysing issues involving the allocation of resources across time. A model that combines the strengths of static CGE models and modern macro-dynamic models is amenable to addressing a wide range of policy issues. To demonstrate this point ORANI-INT is used to analyse tariff reform.

Inhalt

Introduction: Scope and Purpose: Introduction.- State of the Art.- Contributions of this Book.- Organisation of the Remainder of this Book.- An Overview of ORANI-INT: Introduction.- Nomenclature of Intertemporal Modelling.- The Structure of ORANI-INT.- Chapter Summary.- The Theoretical Structure of ORANI-INT: Introduction.- Industry Behavior.- Final Demands.- Zero Pure Profits Conditions.- Market Clearing Conditions.- Miscellaneous Equations.- Chapter Summary.- Appendices: The Log-Linear Form of the ORANI-INT Equation System; The Intertemporal Budget Constraint; Alternative Investment Specifications, The Implications of the Irreversibility Constraint of Investment; A Note on Divisia Indexes.- Solution Method: Introduction.- Alternative Solution Methods.- The ORANI-INT Solution Algorithm.- Modelling Sign Constraints.- Chapter Summary.- Generating the Control Path Solution: Introduction.- Constructing an Intertemporal Base Solution.- The Control Scenarios.- Chapter Summary.- Appendix: The ORANI-13 Database.- ORANI-INT's Simulation Properties with and without Forward-Looking Behavior: Introduction.- An Overview of the Illustrative Experiments.- Interpretation of Results.- The Benchmark Experiment.- The Full Intertemporal Experiment.- The Surprise Experiment.- Chapter Summary.- Should Tariff Reductions be Announced?: Introduction.- Simulating the Tariff Reduction Strategies.- Simulation Results.- Summary and Conclusions.- Summary and Conclusions: Introduction.- Model Development.- Applications.- An Agenda for Future Research.- Final Comments.